Strikes, the nuclear program and the odds of renewed war.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026? | 14% Very unlikely |
| Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026? | 62% Likely |
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 14%, down from 33%, as of October 12. AAA put the average at $4.36 on October 8, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, leaving a hurricane or supply disruption as the main path back up.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
14%
Very unlikely
We now estimate a 62 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, down from 68 percent, as of October 12. Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, taking three weeks off the table, but the Pentagon has drafted strike options and the blockade continues.
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.