Strikes, the nuclear program and the odds of renewed war.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026? | 10% Very unlikely |
| Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026? | 63% Likely |
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 10%, down from 14%, as of October 15. AAA put the average at $4.3344 on October 15, about 17 cents below the line with under three weeks left, and crude has stayed inside its recent range despite new attacks on shipping.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
10%
Very unlikely
We now estimate a 63 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, up from 62 percent, as of October 15. Iran is attacking more ships to keep oil prices high before the midterms, and Trump promised "a number" on Iran, but he also says he promised Tehran restraint on its leaders.
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
63%
Likely
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.