Strikes, the nuclear program and the odds of renewed war.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026? | 33% Unlikely |
| Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026? | 68% Likely |
We put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 33%, as of September 26. Gas sits at $4.49 and Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz, but in 25 of the last 36 years pump prices fell between late September and early November.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
33%
Unlikely
We estimate a 68 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil again by December 31, 2026. The U.S. has not struck Iran ashore since early September and talks restarted, but the blockade, the closed strait and Trump's reported rejection of Iran's ceasefire plan leave the triggers for renewed strikes in place.
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
68%
Likely
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.