Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 10%, down from 14%, as of October 15. AAA put the average at $4.3344 on October 15, about 17 cents below the line with under three weeks left, and crude has stayed inside its recent range despite new attacks on shipping.
Why it matters: Pump prices are the most visible cost of the Iran war and a daily reminder of it for voters heading to the midterm polls, and they feed straight into household budgets, delivery costs and the inflation numbers the Fed is fighting.
TPG forecast
10%
Very unlikely
Unlikely; gas is flat below the line
Version 3: 10% (range 5% to 19%) · Kalshi 9%
Evidence cutoff Oct 15, 2026 · published Oct 15, 2026 · Unlikely; gas is flat below the line
The numbers behind the call
$4.3344
AAA national average for regular on October 15, the resolution source[17]
$4.331
EIA weekly U.S. average for regular gas on October 12, down from $4.354 a week earlier[14]
$106.06
Brent crude per barrel on October 14, inside its early October range[15]
10
ship attacks in one week tied to the Iran conflict, Reuters reported[16]
$4.48
national average on September 24, the highest ever for that time of year[1]
$4.56
the 2026 high, set May 21[2]
What it means for you
Commuters and families
Every 10 cents a gallon costs a household that burns 50 gallons a month about $5 a month. Higher gas and diesel prices have already cost Americans an extra $97 billion since the war began, more than $740 per household.
Truckers, farmers and delivery businesses
Diesel has set record highs above $6 a gallon. Fuel surcharges on freight and farm inputs rise with it and are passed on to grocery and retail prices.
Borrowers
Energy is driving headline inflation and the Fed's rate hikes. Gas above $4.50 into November makes another hike more likely, keeping mortgage and card rates high.
Travelers
Jet fuel costs have pushed airfares up 23.4% from a year ago, and Thanksgiving travel costs will track the same crude oil prices that set pump prices.
Retirement accounts
High fuel prices lift energy stocks but weigh on airlines, retailers and consumer spending, and they keep bond yields elevated through their effect on inflation.
The read
Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.
01
Psychology
What do the decision makers need?
President Trump still needs lower gas prices before November 3, and his public posture has not changed since October 8. At a rally on October 14 he said Iran might be getting a midterm reprieve from U.S. military action, while warning of what would follow, Fox News reported. Keeping strikes off the table until the vote is the one lever he controls that keeps crude from spiking.
The actors who can still move prices are the ones the White House does not control. Iranian officials told Reuters their forces were planning to further intensify strikes on tankers, OilPrice.com reported, though they declined to detail the new strategy, according to Reuters reporting carried by Fox News. A missile strike also damaged a building at Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. Iran gains leverage from pressure on prices before the U.S. vote, which is why the non-strike supply path remains the main route to YES.
The fast domestic tools are still spent. Trump said on October 6 that the administration was thinking about a federal gas tax holiday, but any suspension needs Congress, which is out until after the election, so it cannot move pump prices before November 3.
02
History
What happened the last times this came up?
Reference class: the EIA weekly U.S. average for regular gasoline in every year from 1990 to 2025, comparing the week nearest September 22 with the week nearest November 2. Prices rose or held in fewer than a third of those years. This year the usual autumn decline arrived and then stalled: the EIA weekly series fell from $4.478 on September 21 to $4.354 on October 5 and $4.331 on October 12.
The question is now narrower than the reference class: from a mid October level, how often does gas climb about 4% into early November (our calculation of the rise needed)? The 2022 midterm year shows it takes a deliberate supply cut, as OPEC+ delivered then. In 2026 the equivalent would be a physical disruption: escalating tanker attacks, damage to Gulf export sites or a refinery outage. The tanker campaign is real, but Brent, at $106.06 on October 14, is still inside the roughly $100 to $108 band it traded in during early October, so crude has not broken out.
The June 2026 analogue still marks the downside: when talks produced a memorandum of understanding, the weekly average fell by roughly half a dollar in five weeks. No deal is signed now, and the latest Iranian statements point the other way, so we do not lean on that path.
03
Statistics
Base rate, adjustments, the number.
Start at 14%, version 2's number, which already sat below the base rate's interval. We defend that departure as before: the reference class asks whether gas held from late September, when it was at the $4.50 line, while the live question is whether it climbs back after falling. That is a narrower event.
Down 4 points for time and distance: AAA's national average, the resolution source, was $4.3344 on October 15 and the EIA weekly figure $4.331 on October 12, so the price must rise about 17 cents in under three weeks (our calculation), and Kalshi's contract for above $4.50 on October 31 trades near 9%. We make no upward adjustment for crude: Brent at $106.06 on October 14 is inside the range it already held in early October, and the new tanker attacks belong to the non-strike tail that version 2 counted. Neither of version 2's pump price signposts fired.
14 minus 4 lands at 10%, with a range of 5% to 19%. The top of the range is a sustained crude breakout past version 2's crude signpost.
Between the lines
What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.
Costly signal
Iranian officials told Reuters their forces would further intensify strikes on tankers, and 10 ships were attacked in one week, Reuters reported via Fox News.
Iran is accepting real escalation risk to keep oil tight before the U.S. vote. It is the clearest route to YES, but so far it has kept crude in its range without lifting pump prices, because retail gas lags crude by weeks and the seasonal decline is pulling the other way.
Tone shift
Trump told an October 14 rally that Iran might be getting a midterm reprieve from U.S. military action, then warned of what would follow.
Pairing the reprieve with a threat tells markets the pause is about the calendar, not a change of policy. That keeps the U.S. strike path near zero before November 3 and pushes the risk to the weeks after the vote, which matters for later energy questions, not this one.
Sequencing
The EIA weekly average fell to $4.354 in the week to October 5 but only to $4.331 in the week to October 12, while Brent climbed.
The slide is losing speed as crude firms. Gas is unlikely to fall much further, but it is also not rising, and the gap to $4.50 is wide enough that only a sharp new supply shock closes it by Election Day.
Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 10%. It sits outside the historical interval, so the statistics lens argues why this case is different.
Check our statistics yourself
- Reference class
- 11 of 36 (31%)
- Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson)
- 16.3 to 48.1%
- Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior)
- 18.0 to 47.0%
- Binomial test of our 10%
- p = < 0.001
Our 10% sits outside the historical interval (p = < 0.001). That is a deliberate call that this case differs from history; the statistics lens above states exactly why.
Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)
- Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
- Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.10. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
- Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.
Reference class: Computed by TPG from EIA weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline prices, 1990 to 2025, comparing the week nearest September 22 with the week nearest November 2 each year.
Base rate
31%
of years since 1990 in which gasoline rose or held from late September to early November (11 of 36)[6]
Computed by TPG from EIA weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline prices, 1990 to 2025, comparing the week nearest September 22 with the week nearest November 2 each year. (n = 36)
Closest historical parallels
June 2026 deal-driven slide (2026)
Alike: Same war and same strait; U.S.-Iran talks produced a memorandum of understanding.
Outcome: The weekly average fell from $4.305 on June 1 to $3.777 on July 6, about 12%.
Where it breaks: Today the president has rejected the offer on the table, so the trigger for that slide is missing.
2022 midterm gasoline (2022)
Alike: A war-driven spike, a strategic reserve release and a president under pressure before midterms.
Outcome: Gas rose about 2.4% from late September to early November as an OPEC+ cut outweighed the reserve release.
Where it breaks: The 2022 spike was already months past its June peak; the 2026 price is near its high and physically tied to a closed shipping lane.
2023 autumn decline (2023)
Alike: Record-for-the-season September prices and a new Middle East war in October.
Outcome: Gas fell about 9.5% from late September to early November because supply was never disrupted.
Where it breaks: In 2023 oil flows through the Gulf continued; in 2026 they are sharply reduced.
How it could play out
Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths that resolve YES add up to our 10%.
- Flat to seasonal drift below $4.50 No70%
No deal and no major new disruption; winter blend fuel and lower demand keep gas between $4.10 and $4.45.
- Deal or partial reopening No20%
A phased reopening of the strait or a quiet shipping arrangement sends crude lower and gas well below $4.25.
- Non-strike supply shock Yes8%
Escalating tanker attacks, further strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, a Gulf Coast hurricane or a major refinery outage push gasoline back above $4.50 without U.S. strikes.
- Pledge reversed, strikes spike prices Yes2%
Trump drops the pre-midterm pause and strikes hit Iranian energy facilities or Gulf shipping before November 3.
What would change our number
Brent crude closes above $115 for a week
+20 pointsTrump drops the pre-midterm pause and U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iran resume before November 3
+20 pointsAAA national average back above $4.42 by October 26
+15 pointsAAA national average below $4.25 by October 26
-7 pointsTanker traffic through Hormuz rises sharply or a formal reopening is announced
-8 pointsStrikes knock out a major Saudi or Gulf crude export terminal
+12 pointsTPG 10% vs Kalshi 9%
Read live from Kalshi's public API on October 15: the contract for the AAA national average above $4.50 on October 31 was bid 8 cents and offered 9. It closes three days before our date, so it is a close but not exact match. We sit about 1 point higher because Election Day adds three more days for a supply shock to reach the pump.
Market price recorded October 15, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.
How this question resolves
Resolves YES if the AAA national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline reported for Tuesday, November 3, 2026 is above $4.50 (that is, $4.501 or higher). Resolves NO if it is $4.50 or lower. If AAA's figure for that day cannot be confirmed, the EIA weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline price for the week of November 2, 2026 is used instead.
Closes: November 3, 2026. Judged by: AAA Gas Prices national average (gasprices.aaa.com) for November 3, 2026, with EIA weekly retail gasoline data as backup
Resolved NO on November 5, 2026. Gas fell into Election Day instead of rising: the EIA weekly U.S. regular retail average for November 2, 2026 was $4.153, and AAA's national average was $4.17 on November 1 and $4.10 on November 5, all well under $4.50. Source. See how it scored.
Questions people ask
Will gas prices go down before the election?
+
They have mostly stopped falling. AAA put the national average at $4.3344 on October 15, 2026, down from $4.48 in late September, and the EIA weekly average dropped only about 2 cents in the week to October 12. TPG puts the chance gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, at 10%, as of October 15. A sharp new supply shock is the main way back up.
Will gas be under $4 by Election Day 2026?
+
Unlikely. AAA put the national average at $4.36 on October 8, 2026, so falling below $4.00 by November 3 would take a drop of roughly 8% in under four weeks, by our calculation, faster than the usual autumn decline. Even the June 2026 slide that followed U.S.-Iran talks took five weeks to cut about 53 cents. A sudden deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the only realistic path.
Why are gas prices so high right now?
+
The war with Iran that began on February 28 largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for world oil, and Iranian strikes have damaged Gulf energy infrastructure. Gas has risen about 50% since the war began, and diesel has passed $6 a gallon. September prices are the highest ever for the time of year, and gas was $3.19 a year ago.
What is the highest gas price in 2026?
+
The national average peaked at $4.56 a gallon on May 21, 2026, according to AAA figures reported by NBC News. The all-time record is $5.01 from June 2022. On September 24, 2026, the average was $4.48, a record for late September, and it reached about $4.49 on September 25.
Sources
Every source is dated on or before the October 15, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.
- [1]National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents Since Last Week. AAA Newsroom, Sep 24, 2026.
“At $4.48 per gallon, this is the highest the national average has ever been for this time of year.”
- [2]Gas prices approach highest level this year with just weeks to go before midterms. NBC News, Sep 18, 2026.
“the highest level hit earlier this year, on May 21, when the national average was $4.56 per gallon”
- [3]Gas prices approach highest level this year: war impact. NBC News, Sep 18, 2026.
“Gas prices overall have risen 50% nationwide since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.”
- [4]Labor Day gas has never been this expensive. Trump is scrambling for answers. CNN Business, Sep 4, 2026.
“Americans are paying an extra $97 billion since the Iran war started due to higher gas and diesel prices”
- [5]National Average Jumps 13 Cents in One Week. AAA, Sep 10, 2026.
“One Year Ago: $3.1938”
- [6]U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Weekly). U.S. Energy Information Administration, Sep 22, 2026.
“2026-Sep 09/07 4.157 09/14 4.319 09/21 4.478”
- [7]U.S. Regular Retail Gasoline Prices: June to July 2026. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Sep 22, 2026.
“06/01 4.305 06/08 4.146 06/15 4.052 06/22 3.914 06/29 3.831 2026-Jul 07/06 3.777”
- [8]Iran awaits US move after WSJ report says Trump rejects peace plan. Reuters via Cyprus Mail, Sep 26, 2026.
“he told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely”
- [9]US CPI August 2026: Inflation Picks Up as Gas Prices Surge. US Inflation Calculator (BLS data), Sep 11, 2026.
“Airline fares surged 2.7% in August following a 2.2% increase in July and were 23.4% higher year over year.”
- [10]Pump Prices Remain at Record Highs for Autumn. AAA, Oct 8, 2026.
- [11]Gas Prices Tick Down Slightly After September Highs. NerdWallet, Oct 5, 2026.
- [12]Trump says US will not resume military strikes on Iran before midterm elections. Associated Press via WBTV, Oct 8, 2026.
- [13]National Average Dips Following Record-Setting September. AAA, Oct 1, 2026.
- [14]U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (weekly). U.S. Energy Information Administration, Oct 13, 2026.
“2026-Oct 10/05 4.354 10/12 4.331”
- [15]Oil price hikes, Saudi-Houthi strikes carry on amid Trump's midterm pause on Iran war. Fox News (Reuters reporting), Oct 14, 2026.
“Brent crude rose 37 cents, or 0.35%, to $106.06 a barrel”
- [16]Oil price hikes, Saudi-Houthi strikes carry on amid Trump's midterm pause on Iran war. Fox News (Reuters reporting), Oct 14, 2026.
“Four ships were attacked Tuesday in addition to six ships Sunday, for a total of 10 attacks”
- [17]AAA Gas Prices: national average. AAA, Oct 15, 2026.
“National Average $4.3344”
- [18]Oil Prices Climb Above $106 as Iran Threatens More Tanker Attacks. OilPrice.com, Oct 14, 2026.
“Iranian officials told Reuters the country's forces were planning to further intensify strikes on tankers”
- [19]Oil price prediction October 2026. MoneyMagpie, Oct 5, 2026.
“Brent has swung between roughly $100 and $108 in the past week.”
Version history and integrity
Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.
| Version | Cutoff | Forecast | Lock hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| v3 | Oct 15, 2026 | 10% Very unlikely | 0b15f08ca13f4ed696294dbccd3797a55365bca4f46384e8a655d4785ba76a42 |
| v2 | Oct 12, 2026 | 14% Very unlikely | 93f77de4fc49815a680b8ae0bd53ba435ed546d115fe48724c5173d3ece2b605 |
| v1 | Sep 26, 2026 | 33% Unlikely | 9d2ac4d98afb8de0f4519883b90ee7837580e89f901ca1a2cde6f894a4797f5b |
Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.
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