Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?

President Trump needs lower gas prices before November 3 and has said so: "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward." Yet the Wall Street Journal, as reported by Reuters, says he rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and told staff a renewed bombing campaign is likely. That choice reveals the ranking of his goals: not being seen to concede to Tehran outranks cheaper gas before the midterms. Accepting the deal would have been the one lever that could move pump prices quickly.

Iran's leverage is at its peak before a U.S. election, which gives it reason to keep offering a deal on its terms rather than escalate and harden U.S. opinion. It has briefed Saudi Arabia on an understanding with Oman about safe shipping routes through the strait, so some supply relief could arrive without a formal U.S. agreement.

The administration has already used its fast tools: a historic Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, eased fuel rules, a Venezuela oil deal and meetings with refiners. A federal gas tax holiday would cut 18.4 cents at once, but only Congress can pass it and it has not. What remains is jawboning, which does not move world crude prices.

Reference class: the EIA's weekly U.S. average for regular gasoline in every year from 1990 to 2025, comparing the week nearest September 22 with the week nearest November 2. Prices fell in 25 of 36 years, with a median change of minus 2.6%. They rose or held in 11 of 36, or 31%. Gas needs to be essentially unchanged from today's $4.49 to resolve YES, so the plain seasonal base rate is about 30%.

Closest analogue: this June. After U.S.-Iran talks produced a memorandum of understanding in early summer, the weekly average fell from $4.305 on June 1 to $3.777 by July 6, a drop of about 12% in five weeks. A credible deal can take 50 cents off the pump within this window. The analogy breaks today because the president has just rejected the offer on the table.

Second analogue: the 2022 midterms. After the Russia-driven spike, gas rose from about $3.65 in late September to $3.74 in early November as an OPEC+ output cut offset a pre-election reserve release. A supply shock can overpower the usual autumn decline. Where it breaks: 2026 prices are already near a record for the season, which leaves more room for retreat if crude eases.

Start at 31%, the share of years since 1990 in which gasoline rose or held from late September to early November.

Adjustments. Up 5 points because the peace plan rejection raises the chance of renewed strikes, and diesel and refining are in crisis, which props up gasoline too. Up 3 points for momentum: the EIA weekly average has risen from $4.071 to $4.478 in three weeks. Down 4 points because talks through Qatari mediators remain open and Iran and Oman have a safe-shipping understanding, so a partial reopening could still arrive. Down 2 points for the switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel and the administration's incentive to squeeze out any pre-election relief.

31 plus 5 plus 3 minus 4 minus 2 lands at 33%. For the $4 line many voters watch, the math is different: a drop of 49 cents or more in about five and a half weeks has happened in only about 2% of such windows since 1990, and even the June 2026 deal-driven slide took five weeks to cut about 53 cents. We put gas above $4.00 on Election Day at about 90%.