Upset Brief · AZ-01 · Jay Feely (R) vs. Amish Shah (D)

Feely can win. The math closes using 85 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
62%
odds with the plan
7,418
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    Rio Verde (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Feely +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,435 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +202
  2. 02
    Dixileta (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Feely +19. 4.6% split their ticket. About 933 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +179
  3. 03
    Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Feely +28. 3.9% split their ticket. About 878 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +151
  4. 04
    Four Peaks (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Feely +18. 4.1% split their ticket. About 678 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  5. 05
    Lone Mountain (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Feely +28. 4.4% split their ticket. About 474 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +110
  6. 06
    Desert Highlands (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Feely +32. 4.2% split their ticket. About 479 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +108

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Shah today.
    +6,363
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 20,652 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Feely's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,314
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Feely's way.
    +112
What has to be true
  1. Feely wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Shah.
  2. In Rio Verde (Maricopa County) and Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County), 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 85 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    203 precincts, R² 0.986, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -34,695 to 50,800 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1
    Feely $794,475 cash on hand; Shah $401,745.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    19,458 households, 58,374 dials, about 3,059 live conversations: an estimated $7,233 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,233 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.