Arizona · 8 federal races · election held November 3

Every Arizona race. From the other side.

The election is over. 4 of 8 races are called so far, and no underdog won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Arizona's House districts are the 2022 Independent Redistricting Commission map, unchanged for 2026. There is no U.S. Senate race in Arizona in 2026.

No Republican is printed on the 3rd District ballot, so two-party precinct math cannot model that race and it is not given a plan here.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

7,418

net votes: the closest upset in Arizona (AZ-01)

underdog wins out of 4 races called so far

Pick a race

8 plans. One question each.

AZ-01 · open seat

How Jay Feely wins

7,418 net votes to find, most of them in Rio Verde (Maricopa County) and Dixileta (Maricopa County).

Result: Amish Shah won.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-02 · vs. incumbent

How Jonathan Nez wins

22,753 net votes to find, most of them in Red Butte (Navajo County) and Sunrise (Navajo County).

Result: Eli Crane leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-04 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Zuhdi Jasser

25,070 net votes to find, most of them in Groves (Maricopa County) and Apache Wells (Maricopa County).

Result: Greg Stanton won.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-05 · open seat

What it would take for Elizabeth Lee

61,302 net votes to find, most of them in Sagebrush (Maricopa County) and Sunland Village (Maricopa County).

Result: Mark Lamb leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-06 · open seat

How Juan Ciscomani wins

9,713 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 109 (Pima County) and Precinct 011 (Pima County).

Result: JoAnna Mendoza leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-07 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Daniel Butierez Sr.

55,977 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 005 (Pima County) and Hidden Valley (Pinal County).

Result: Adelita Grijalva won.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-08 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Bernadette Greene Placentia

42,286 net votes to find, most of them in El Caro (Maricopa County) and Harmont (Maricopa County).

Result: Abraham Hamadeh leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

AZ-09 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Danielle Sterbinsky

85,450 net votes to find, most of them in Lake Havasu South (Mohave County) and Bullhead City (Mohave County).

Result: Paul Gosar won.

See the path and the result ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Arizona 2026 election guide.