Arizona · 8 federal races · 37 days left
Every Arizona race. From the other side.
The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.
Arizona's House districts are the 2022 Independent Redistricting Commission map, unchanged for 2026. There is no U.S. Senate race in Arizona in 2026.
No Republican is printed on the 3rd District ballot, so two-party precinct math cannot model that race and it is not given a plan here.
See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
8
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
7,418
net votes: the closest upset in Arizona (AZ-01)
37
days until November 3. Early voting opens October 7.
Pick a race
8 plans. One question each.
AZ-01 · open seat
How Jay Feely wins
7,418 net votes to find, most of them in Rio Verde (Maricopa County) and Dixileta (Maricopa County).
See the path ›
AZ-02 · vs. incumbent
How Jonathan Nez wins
22,753 net votes to find, most of them in Red Butte (Navajo County) and Sunrise (Navajo County).
See the path ›
AZ-04 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Zuhdi Jasser
25,070 net votes to find, most of them in Groves (Maricopa County) and Apache Wells (Maricopa County).
See the path ›
AZ-05 · open seat
What it would take for Elizabeth Lee
61,302 net votes to find, most of them in Sagebrush (Maricopa County) and Sunland Village (Maricopa County).
See the path ›
AZ-06 · open seat
How Juan Ciscomani wins
9,713 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 109 (Pima County) and Precinct 011 (Pima County).
See the path ›
AZ-07 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Daniel Butierez Sr.
55,977 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 005 (Pima County) and Hidden Valley (Pinal County).
See the path ›
AZ-08 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Bernadette Greene Placentia
42,286 net votes to find, most of them in El Caro (Maricopa County) and Harmont (Maricopa County).
See the path ›
AZ-09 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Danielle Sterbinsky
85,450 net votes to find, most of them in Lake Havasu South (Mohave County) and Bullhead City (Mohave County).
See the path ›
Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Arizona 2026 election guide.