Where a dollar moves an Arizona race.

Where

1. Red Butte (Navajo County) +601
   Starting line Nez +76. 10.9% split their ticket.
2. Sunrise (Navajo County) +476
   Starting line Nez +79. 10.0% split their ticket. About 967 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Bison (Navajo County) +461
   Starting line Crane +28. 3.5% split their ticket.
4. Graze (351.00) (Yavapai County) +440
   Starting line Crane +49. 3.4% split their ticket.
5. Woodland (Navajo County) +426
   Starting line Crane +34. 3.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +20,104
  Ticket splitters and the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 23,889 leaning Crane today.
• Mobilize +3,679
  At least 23,263 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nez's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +108
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nez's way.

What has to be true

1. Nez wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Crane.
2. In Sunrise (Navajo County) and Tuba City South (Coconino County), 29 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 84 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  283 precincts, slope 1.102, R² 0.981, 40 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,798 to 30,937
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Nez $1,910,990 · Crane $2,841,745
• Call program
  38,675 households, 116,025 dials, about 6,080 live conversations and 2,073 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 109 (Pima County) +264
   Starting line Ciscomani +13. 3.5% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 011 (Pima County) +252
   Starting line Ciscomani +41. 4.1% split their ticket. About 773 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 172 (Pima County) +249
   Starting line Ciscomani +1. 3.6% split their ticket.
4. Pima #9 (Graham County) +245
   Starting line Ciscomani +68. 3.9% split their ticket. About 634 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 224 (Pima County) +193
   Starting line Ciscomani +3. 3.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +8,801
  Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,280 leaning Mendoza today.
• Mobilize +1,107
  At least 27,701 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ciscomani's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +291
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ciscomani's way.

What has to be true

1. Ciscomani wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Mendoza.
2. In Pima #9 (Graham County) and Precinct 011 (Pima County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 43 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  245 precincts, slope 0.979, R² 0.990, 60 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -29,549 to 30,204
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Ciscomani $4,135,163 · Mendoza $3,260,877
• Call program
  17,101 households, 51,303 dials, about 2,688 live conversations and 917 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Rio Verde (Maricopa County) +202
   Starting line Feely +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,435 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Dixileta (Maricopa County) +179
   Starting line Feely +19. 4.6% split their ticket. About 933 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County) +151
   Starting line Feely +28. 3.9% split their ticket. About 878 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Four Peaks (Maricopa County) +111
   Starting line Feely +18. 4.1% split their ticket. About 678 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Lone Mountain (Maricopa County) +110
   Starting line Feely +28. 4.4% split their ticket. About 474 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +6,363
  7,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Shah today.
• Mobilize +1,314
  At least 20,652 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Feely's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +112
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Feely's way.

What has to be true

1. Feely wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Shah.
2. In Rio Verde (Maricopa County) and Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County), 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 85 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  203 precincts, slope 1.057, R² 0.986, 41 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -34,695 to 50,800
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Feely $794,475 · Shah $401,745
• Call program
  19,458 households, 58,374 dials, about 3,059 live conversations and 1,043 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Groves (Maricopa County) +139
   Starting line Jasser +22. 4.4% split their ticket. About 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Apache Wells (Maricopa County) +138
   Starting line Jasser +18. 4.7% split their ticket. About 779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Arboleda (Maricopa County) +133
   Starting line Jasser +34. 3.9% split their ticket. About 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. San Michelle (Maricopa County) +130
   Starting line Jasser +13. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Greenfield Park (Maricopa County) +130
   Starting line Jasser +12. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,110 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +5,677
  5,677 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Stanton today.
• Mobilize +1,160
  At least 16,717 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jasser's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +376
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jasser's way.

Plus a 6.6-point national shift (17,857 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Jasser wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Stanton.
2. In Arboleda (Maricopa County) and Groves (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 6.6 points toward Jasser's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  146 precincts, slope 1.055, R² 0.996, 24 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -49,227 to 14,063
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Jasser $341,651 · Stanton $2,020,289
• Call program
  20,111 households, 60,334 dials, about 3,162 live conversations and 1,078 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. El Caro (Maricopa County) +172
   Starting line Greene Placentia +31. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Harmont (Maricopa County) +110
   Starting line Greene Placentia +20. 5.2% split their ticket. About 823 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Butler (Maricopa County) +105
   Starting line Greene Placentia +18. 4.8% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Frontier (Maricopa County) +103
   Starting line Hamadeh +24. 5.0% split their ticket.
5. Desert Sage (Maricopa County) +99
   Starting line Hamadeh +19. 4.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +6,710
  6,710 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hamadeh today.
• Mobilize +742
  At least 11,383 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Greene Placentia's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +126
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Greene Placentia's way.

Plus a 11.2-point national shift (34,708 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Greene Placentia wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hamadeh.
2. In El Caro (Maricopa County) and Butler (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 11.2 points toward Greene Placentia's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  173 precincts, slope 1.059, R² 0.986, 27 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,490 to 947
• Cash on hand, March 31
  Placentia $190,394 · Hamadeh $384,185
• Call program
  17,362 households, 52,087 dials, about 2,729 live conversations and 931 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Sagebrush (Maricopa County) +118
   Starting line Lamb +22. 4.6% split their ticket.
2. Sunland Village (Maricopa County) +112
   Starting line Lamb +18. 4.9% split their ticket.
3. Colonia (Maricopa County) +105
   Starting line Lee +1. 4.7% split their ticket.
4. Oakwood Country Club (Maricopa County) +95
   Starting line Lamb +20. 4.2% split their ticket.
5. Joshua Tree (Maricopa County) +92
   Starting line Lamb +16. 4.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +7,001
  7,001 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lamb today.
• Mobilize +23
  At least 603 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lee's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +791
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lee's way.

Plus a 16.3-point national shift (53,486 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Lee wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lamb.
2. The national environment moves about 16.3 points toward Lee's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  150 precincts, slope 0.984, R² 0.991, 20 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,727 to -15,531
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Lee $26,740 · Lamb $243,426
• Call program
  11,637 households, 34,911 dials, about 1,829 live conversations and 624 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 005 (Pima County) +206
   Starting line Butierez +39. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,097 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Hidden Valley (Pinal County) +114
   Starting line Butierez +44. 4.5% split their ticket. About 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 041 (Pima County) +83
   Starting line Grijalva +23. 4.6% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 222 (Pima County) +77
   Starting line Butierez +30. 5.0% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Crystal Gardens (Maricopa County) +74
   Starting line Grijalva +19. 5.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,204
  4,204 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Grijalva today.
• Mobilize +456
  At least 4,121 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Butierez's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +59
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Butierez's way.

Plus a 25.7-point national shift (51,257 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Butierez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Grijalva.
2. In Precinct 005 (Pima County) and Hidden Valley (Pinal County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 25.7 points toward Butierez's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  201 precincts, slope 1.003, R² 0.965, 41 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -74,713 to -27,924
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Butierez $11,399 · Grijalva $427,977
• Call program
  8,762 households, 26,285 dials, about 1,377 live conversations and 470 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Lake Havasu South (Mohave County) +312
   Starting line Gosar +59. 3.4% split their ticket.
2. Bullhead City (Mohave County) +257
   Starting line Gosar +45. 3.7% split their ticket.
3. Mohave Valley (Mohave County) +173
   Starting line Gosar +53. 3.9% split their ticket.
4. Kingman East (Mohave County) +145
   Starting line Gosar +56. 4.3% split their ticket.
5. Lake Havasu North (Mohave County) +124
   Starting line Gosar +63. 3.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +5,900
  5,900 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gosar today.
• Mobilize +423
  At least 5,389 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Sterbinsky's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +84
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sterbinsky's way.

Plus a 28.1-point national shift (79,043 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Sterbinsky wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gosar.
2. In Independence (Maricopa County) and Soledad (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 28.1 points toward Sterbinsky's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  165 precincts, slope 1.034, R² 0.995, 24 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -111,387 to -46,304
• Cash on hand, July 1
  Sterbinsky $25,745 · Gosar $303,214
• Call program
  12,025 households, 36,076 dials, about 1,890 live conversations and 644 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)