Arizona · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

How Jay Feely wins.

A true toss-up between Feely and Shah: no public poll exists, and the ratings lean Shah's way while the district's recent official results lean Feely's side. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 7,418 net votes, most of them in Rio Verde (Maricopa County), Dixileta (Maricopa County) and Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County).

7,418

net votes between Feely and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up (no public poll; ratings and results disagree)

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Feely can win. The math closes using 85 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan62%

Net votes to find7,418

WhereRio Verde (Maricopa County), Dixileta (Maricopa County), Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Shah +0.0. Jay Feely needs 7,418 net votes. Odds 39% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

185,454 votes.

That is half of the 370,906 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Feely stands today, and what is missing:

185,065 Jay Feely baseline

185,065 Amish Shah baseline

Starting line: a tie (no public poll exists, and the ratings lean Shah's way while the district's recent official results lean Feely's side), applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 62% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Feely wins in

62%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves85%

The plan on this page sits at 85%. Median outcome at this setting: Feely by 7,926.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

6,363

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,513

Who. 7,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Shah today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Feely needs to win 42 percent of the ones now leaning Shah.

Mobilize

1,314

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 20,652

Who. At least 20,652 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Feely's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

112

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 378

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Feely's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,789 net votes against a gap of 7,418. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Rio Verde (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Feely +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,435 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+202
02
Dixileta (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +19. 4.6% split their ticket. About 933 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+179
03
Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Feely +28. 3.9% split their ticket. About 878 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+151
04
Four Peaks (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +18. 4.1% split their ticket. About 678 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
05
Lone Mountain (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +28. 4.4% split their ticket. About 474 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+110
06
Desert Highlands (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +32. 4.2% split their ticket. About 479 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+108
07
Boulder Mountain (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +23. 3.7% split their ticket. About 518 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
08
Bronco (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +20. 4.0% split their ticket. About 548 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
09
McCormick Ranch (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Shah +2. 4.1% split their ticket.
+93
10
Cheney (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +25. 4.4% split their ticket. About 407 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+93
11
Westworld (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +4. 3.6% split their ticket.
+92
12
Las Sendas (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Feely +19. 3.6% split their ticket. About 527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Rio Verde (Maricopa County) carries the most.

Rio Verde (Maricopa County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 202. It sits at Feely +40 on our starting line, and 2.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County) is a turnout race.

Feely's side leads Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County) by about 28 points on our starting line, and it cast about 878 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 87 votes there.

Dixileta (Maricopa County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Dixileta (Maricopa County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Feely has the cash edge.

As of July 1, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Feely had $794K in cash on hand to Shah's $402K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Feely's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 203
Slope: 1.057
R²: 0.986
Residual SD: 2.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 41

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Feely's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Feely, with Shah, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,363 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 20,652 of them live where Feely is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 3.8 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 3.1 points; Gallego carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 5.0 points.

Feely wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Shah.
In Rio Verde (Maricopa County) and Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County), 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 85 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,059 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 58,374 dials to 19,458 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

58K

dials across three attempts

3,059

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,233 at our published rates: 19,458 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jay Feely (R)

Former NFL placekicker who played for six NFL teams from 2001 to 2014, including the Arizona Cardinals, and later worked as an NFL analyst for CBS Sports; he is a University of Michigan graduate and kicked for Michigan's 1997 national championship team.

Cash on hand $794,475 and $2,525,520 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Amish Shah (D)

Chicago-born emergency physician who has practiced with Mayo Clinic and Dignity Health and served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2019 to 2024; he earned a B.A. in economics and an M.D. from Northwestern University and an M.P.H. from UC Berkeley.

Cash on hand $401,745 and $1,830,193 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Monica Alponte (L)

Retired business writer and community leader who formerly co-hosted a conservative TV talk show and has worked with the county on road and driver safety (Ballotpedia candidate survey).

Cash on hand $634 and $8,941 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Gage Thunder (No )

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Dev Gupta (I)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Shah +0.0. Jay Feely needs 7,418 net votes. Odds 39% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jay Feely win Arizona's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Jay Feely needs 7,418 net votes, and recent Arizona results show about 9,196 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 85 percent of that.

Where are the votes Jay Feely needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Rio Verde (Maricopa County), Dixileta (Maricopa County), Pinnacle Peak (Maricopa County), Four Peaks (Maricopa County), Lone Mountain (Maricopa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jay Feely need to persuade?

About 3,182 voters who lean Amish Shah today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 42 percent of the 7,513 persuadable voters leaning Amish Shah.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.