Upset Brief · AZ-02 · Jonathan Nez (D) vs. Eli Crane (R), incumbent

Nez can win. The math closes using 84 percent of what history allows.

8%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
22,753
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    Red Butte (Navajo County)
    Starting line Nez +76. 10.9% split their ticket.
    +601
  2. 02
    Sunrise (Navajo County)
    Starting line Nez +79. 10.0% split their ticket. About 967 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +476
  3. 03
    Bison (Navajo County)
    Starting line Crane +28. 3.5% split their ticket.
    +461
  4. 04
    Graze (351.00) (Yavapai County)
    Starting line Crane +49. 3.4% split their ticket.
    +440
  5. 05
    Woodland (Navajo County)
    Starting line Crane +34. 3.4% split their ticket.
    +426
  6. 06
    Onyx (337.00) (Yavapai County)
    Starting line Crane +9. 3.3% split their ticket.
    +412

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 23,889 leaning Crane today.
    +20,104
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 23,263 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nez's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,679
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nez's way.
    +108
What has to be true
  1. Nez wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Crane.
  2. In Sunrise (Navajo County) and Tuba City South (Coconino County), 29 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 84 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    283 precincts, R² 0.981, 40 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,798 to 30,937 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1
    Nez $1,910,990 cash on hand; Crane $2,841,745.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    38,675 households, 116,025 dials, about 6,080 live conversations: an estimated $11,970 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,970 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.