Arizona · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

How Jonathan Nez wins.

Crane starts 6.9 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Nez needs 22,753 net votes, and the math closes using 84 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Red Butte (Navajo County), Sunrise (Navajo County) and Bison (Navajo County).

22,753

net votes between Nez and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

6.9 pts

Crane lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Nez can win. The math closes using 84 percent of what history allows.

Odds today8%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find22,753

WhereRed Butte (Navajo County), Sunrise (Navajo County), Bison (Navajo County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Crane +6.9. Jonathan Nez needs 22,753 net votes. Odds 8% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

164,866 votes.

That is half of the 329,731 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Nez stands today, and what is missing:

153,121 Jonathan Nez baseline

175,874 Eli Crane baseline

Starting line: Crane +6.9 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

8% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Nez wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves84%

The plan on this page sits at 84%. Median outcome at this setting: Nez by 1,060.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

20K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,889

Who. Ticket splitters and the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 23,889 leaning Crane today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Nez needs to win 42 percent of the ones now leaning Crane.

Mobilize

3,679

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,263

Who. At least 23,263 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nez's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

108

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 366

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nez's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 23,891 net votes against a gap of 22,753. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Red Butte (Navajo County)persuade
Starting line Nez +76. 10.9% split their ticket.
+601
02
Sunrise (Navajo County)mobilize
Starting line Nez +79. 10.0% split their ticket. About 967 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+476
03
Bison (Navajo County)persuade
Starting line Crane +28. 3.5% split their ticket.
+461
04
Graze (351.00) (Yavapai County)persuade
Starting line Crane +49. 3.4% split their ticket.
+440
05
Woodland (Navajo County)persuade
Starting line Crane +34. 3.4% split their ticket.
+426
06
Onyx (337.00) (Yavapai County)persuade
Starting line Crane +9. 3.3% split their ticket.
+412
07
Golf (304.00) (Yavapai County)persuade
Starting line Crane +10. 2.9% split their ticket.
+372
08
Tuba City South (Coconino County)persuade
Starting line Nez +79. 10.3% split their ticket. About 556 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+341
09
Fort (328.00) (Yavapai County)persuade
Starting line Crane +32. 3.5% split their ticket.
+341
10
Azure (335.00) (Yavapai County)persuade
Starting line Crane +7. 3.5% split their ticket.
+338
11
Court (303.00) (Yavapai County)persuade
Starting line Crane +6. 2.9% split their ticket.
+315
12
Province (Pinal County)persuade
Starting line Crane +2. 4.3% split their ticket.
+282

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Red Butte (Navajo County) carries the most.

Red Butte (Navajo County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 601. It sits at Nez +76 on our starting line, and 10.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Sunrise (Navajo County) is a turnout race.

Nez's side leads Sunrise (Navajo County) by about 79 points on our starting line, and it cast about 967 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 266 votes there.

The money is close.

As of July 1, 2026, Crane had $2.84 million in cash on hand to Nez's $1.91 million. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Nez's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 283
Slope: 1.102
R²: 0.981
Residual SD: 6.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 40

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Nez's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Nez, with Crane, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 20,104 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 23,263 of them live where Nez is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 9.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.0 points; Lake carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 8.0 points.

Nez wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Crane.
In Sunrise (Navajo County) and Tuba City South (Coconino County), 29 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 84 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

6,080 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 116,025 dials to 38,675 households, before the last ballot is cast.

39K

households on the target list

116K

dials across three attempts

6,080

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,970 at our published rates: 38,675 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jonathan Nez (D)

President of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023, after serving as its vice president and as a Navajo Nation Council delegate; born in Tuba City and raised in Shonto, he holds a B.S. in political science and a Master of Public Administration from Northern Arizona University.

Cash on hand $1,910,990 and $3,519,760 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Eli Crane (R)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2023, born in Tucson and raised in Yuma, who served in the U.S. Navy from 2001 to 2014, including as a Navy SEAL; he co-founded Bottle Breacher, which makes bottle openers from .50-caliber shell casings.

Cash on hand $2,841,745 and $9,481,428 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Curtis Goodwin (L)

A technician born and raised in Mesa, Arizona (Ballotpedia).

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Crane +6.9. Jonathan Nez needs 22,753 net votes. Odds 8% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jonathan Nez win Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Jonathan Nez needs 22,753 net votes, and recent Arizona results show about 28,389 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 84 percent of that.

Where are the votes Jonathan Nez needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Red Butte (Navajo County), Sunrise (Navajo County), Bison (Navajo County), Graze (351.00) (Yavapai County), Woodland (Navajo County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jonathan Nez need to persuade?

About 10,052 voters who lean Eli Crane today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 42 percent of the 23,889 persuadable voters leaning Eli Crane.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.