Upset Brief · AZ-04 · Zuhdi Jasser (R) vs. Greg Stanton (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.6-point national wave.

10%
odds today
18%
odds with the plan
25,070
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    Groves (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Jasser +22. 4.4% split their ticket. About 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +139
  2. 02
    Apache Wells (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Jasser +18. 4.7% split their ticket. About 779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +138
  3. 03
    Arboleda (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Jasser +34. 3.9% split their ticket. About 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +133
  4. 04
    San Michelle (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Jasser +13. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130
  5. 05
    Greenfield Park (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Jasser +12. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,110 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130
  6. 06
    Sun Trails (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Jasser +17. 4.4% split their ticket. About 895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +122

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,677 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Stanton today.
    +5,677
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,717 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jasser's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,160
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jasser's way.
    +376

Plus a national shift of 6.6 points of margin (17,857 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Jasser wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Stanton.
  2. In Arboleda (Maricopa County) and Groves (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 6.6 points toward Jasser's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    146 precincts, R² 0.996, 24 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -49,227 to 14,063 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1
    Jasser $341,651 cash on hand; Stanton $2,020,289.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,111 households, 60,334 dials, about 3,162 live conversations: an estimated $6,974 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,974 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.