Arizona · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Zuhdi Jasser.

Stanton starts 9.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,213 net votes toward Jasser, a 2.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 6.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Jasser the one standing if one comes.

25,070

net votes between Jasser and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

9.2 pts

Stanton lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.6-point national wave.

Odds today10%

Odds with the plan18%

Net votes to find25,070

WhereGroves (Maricopa County), Apache Wells (Maricopa County), Arboleda (Maricopa County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Stanton +9.2. Zuhdi Jasser needs 25,070 net votes. Odds 10% today, 18% with the plan.

The number

135,695 votes.

That is half of the 271,389 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Jasser stands today, and what is missing:

121,925 Zuhdi Jasser baseline

146,995 Greg Stanton baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

10% today. 18% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Jasser wins in

18%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

10%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Jasser short by 17,799.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,677

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,677

Who. 5,677 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Stanton today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Jasser needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Stanton.

Mobilize

1,160

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,717

Who. At least 16,717 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jasser's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

376

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,075

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jasser's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,213 net votes against a gap of 25,070. Still 17,857 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 6.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Groves (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +22. 4.4% split their ticket. About 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+139
02
Apache Wells (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +18. 4.7% split their ticket. About 779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+138
03
Arboleda (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Jasser +34. 3.9% split their ticket. About 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+133
04
San Michelle (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +13. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130
05
Greenfield Park (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +12. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,110 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130
06
Sun Trails (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +17. 4.4% split their ticket. About 895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+122
07
Tonto (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +16. 4.7% split their ticket. About 834 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+118
08
Dreamland Villa (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +13. 3.9% split their ticket. About 759 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+113
09
Red Mountain (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +16. 4.2% split their ticket. About 881 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+110
10
Glenview (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +30. 4.0% split their ticket. About 474 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+104
11
Los Alamos (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +28. 5.0% split their ticket. About 510 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
12
Valencia Groves (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Jasser +21. 5.1% split their ticket. About 668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+101

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Groves (Maricopa County) carries the most.

Groves (Maricopa County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 139. It sits at Jasser +22 on our starting line, and 4.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Arboleda (Maricopa County) is a turnout race.

Jasser's side leads Arboleda (Maricopa County) by about 34 points on our starting line, and it cast about 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 74 votes there.

Valencia Groves (Maricopa County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Valencia Groves (Maricopa County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 1, 2026, Stanton had $2.02 million in cash on hand to Jasser's $342K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Jasser's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 146
Slope: 1.055
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 1.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 24

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Jasser's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Jasser, with Stanton, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,677 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,717 of them live where Jasser is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 7.3 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 6.7 points; Gallego carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 15.0 points.

Jasser wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Stanton.
In Arboleda (Maricopa County) and Groves (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 6.6 points toward Jasser's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,162 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 60,334 dials to 20,111 households, before the last ballot is cast.

20K

households on the target list

60K

dials across three attempts

3,162

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,974 at our published rates: 20,111 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Zuhdi Jasser (R)

Phoenix physician specializing in internal medicine and nuclear cardiology and a former U.S. Navy lieutenant commander who served as a staff internist in the Office of the Attending Physician of the U.S. Congress; founder of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, with degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and the Medical College of Wisconsin.

Cash on hand $341,651 and $564,641 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Greg Stanton (D)

U.S. representative since 2019, serving the 4th District since 2023, and former mayor of Phoenix (2012 to 2018) after serving on the Phoenix City Council from 2000 to 2009; a lawyer with a BA from Marquette University and a JD from the University of Michigan.

Cash on hand $2,020,289 and $2,117,114 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Tisha Benoit (NL)

Healthcare professional who practices herbal medicine and acupuncture (Politics1, Wikipedia); won the No Labels Party nomination for the 4th District.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Steve Sanders (I)

Aviation mechanic and U.S. Army veteran running as a write-in candidate (Politics1).

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Stanton +9.2. Zuhdi Jasser needs 25,070 net votes. Odds 10% today, 18% with the plan.

Questions

Can Zuhdi Jasser win Arizona's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,213 net votes; the gap is 25,070. The rest would take a 6.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Zuhdi Jasser needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Groves (Maricopa County), Apache Wells (Maricopa County), Arboleda (Maricopa County), San Michelle (Maricopa County), Greenfield Park (Maricopa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Zuhdi Jasser need to persuade?

About 2,838 voters who lean Greg Stanton today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,677 persuadable voters leaning Greg Stanton.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.