A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.3-point national wave.

1. 01
   Sagebrush (Maricopa County)

   Starting line Lamb +22. 4.6% split their ticket.
   +118
2. 02
   Sunland Village (Maricopa County)

   Starting line Lamb +18. 4.9% split their ticket.
   +112
3. 03
   Colonia (Maricopa County)

   Starting line Lee +1. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +105
4. 04
   Oakwood Country Club (Maricopa County)

   Starting line Lamb +20. 4.2% split their ticket.
   +95
5. 05
   Joshua Tree (Maricopa County)

   Starting line Lamb +16. 4.2% split their ticket.
   +92
6. 06
   Fenimore (Maricopa County)

   Starting line Lamb +38. 4.0% split their ticket.
   +92

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  7,001 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lamb today.
  +7,001
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Lee's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +23
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +791

Plus a national shift of 16.3 points of margin (53,486 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Lee wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lamb.
2. It would take a national shift of about 16.3 points toward Lee's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  150 precincts, R² 0.991, 20 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,727 to -15,531 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1

  Lee $26,740 cash on hand; Lamb $243,426.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  11,637 households, 34,911 dials, about 1,829 live conversations: an estimated $5,192 at published rates.