What it would take for Elizabeth Lee.
Lamb starts 18.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,815 net votes toward Lee, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 16.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Lee the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.3-point national wave.
164,234 votes.
That is half of the 328,467 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Lee stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 7,001 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lamb today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Lee needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Lamb.
Who. At least 603 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lee's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lee's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 7,815 net votes against a gap of 61,302. Still 53,487 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 16.3 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 15% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+118Sagebrush (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +22. 4.6% split their ticket.
- 02+112Sunland Village (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +18. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 03+105Colonia (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lee +1. 4.7% split their ticket.
- 04+95Oakwood Country Club (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +20. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 05+92Joshua Tree (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +16. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 06+92Fenimore (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +38. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 07+92Compadre (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line even. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 08+91Bayshore (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +4. 3.9% split their ticket.
- 09+89Spur (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +11. 4.3% split their ticket.
- 10+88Sunnyvale (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +28. 4.6% split their ticket.
- 11+85Rittenhouse (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +35. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 12+85Seville (Maricopa County)persuadeStarting line Lamb +25. 3.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Sagebrush (Maricopa County) carries the most.
Sagebrush (Maricopa County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 118. It sits at Lamb +22 on our starting line, and 4.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Sunland Village (Maricopa County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Sunland Village (Maricopa County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 1, 2026, Lamb had $243K in cash on hand to Lee's $27K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,815 net votes. The gap is 61,302. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.4 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Lee's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 150
- Slope
- 0.984
- R²
- 0.991
- Residual SD
- 1.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 20
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Lee's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 7.
- Now to October 6Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Lee, with Lamb, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 7 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,001 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 25Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 603 of them live where Lee is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 20.8 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 20.0 points; Lake carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 11.5 points.
- Lee wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lamb.
- The national environment moves about 16.3 points toward Lee's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,829 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 34,911 dials to 11,637 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,192 at our published rates: 11,637 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Elizabeth Lee (D)
Board-certified reproductive health and infertility nurse and board-certified patient advocate, a mother and a product of public schools (Ballotpedia candidate survey).
Cash on hand $26,740 and $153,111 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.
Mark Lamb (R)
Served as Pinal County sheriff from 2017 through 2024 after a law enforcement career with the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community police department and the Pinal County Sheriff's Office; a Chandler High School graduate who earlier worked in pest control.
Cash on hand $243,426 and $1,222,217 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Lamb +18.7. Elizabeth Lee needs 61,302 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Elizabeth Lee win Arizona's 5th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,815 net votes; the gap is 61,302. The rest would take a 16.3-point national shift.
Where are the votes Elizabeth Lee needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Sagebrush (Maricopa County), Sunland Village (Maricopa County), Colonia (Maricopa County), Oakwood Country Club (Maricopa County), Joshua Tree (Maricopa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Elizabeth Lee need to persuade?
About 3,500 voters who lean Mark Lamb today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,001 persuadable voters leaning Mark Lamb.
When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Arizona Secretary of State, election results
- Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, final congressional map
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Arizona's 5th Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: Mark Lamb (sheriff)
- KTAR: Results of Arizona's 5th congressional district primary election