Upset Brief · AZ-06 · Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. JoAnna Mendoza (D)

Ciscomani can win. The math closes using 43 percent of what history allows.

29%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
9,713
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 109 (Pima County)
    Starting line Ciscomani +13. 3.5% split their ticket.
    +264
  2. 02
    Precinct 011 (Pima County)
    Starting line Ciscomani +41. 4.1% split their ticket. About 773 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +252
  3. 03
    Precinct 172 (Pima County)
    Starting line Ciscomani +1. 3.6% split their ticket.
    +249
  4. 04
    Pima #9 (Graham County)
    Starting line Ciscomani +68. 3.9% split their ticket. About 634 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +245
  5. 05
    Precinct 224 (Pima County)
    Starting line Ciscomani +3. 3.8% split their ticket.
    +193
  6. 06
    Precinct 104 (Pima County)
    Starting line Mendoza +6. 3.7% split their ticket.
    +180

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,280 leaning Mendoza today.
    +8,801
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 27,701 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ciscomani's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,107
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ciscomani's way.
    +291
What has to be true
  1. Ciscomani wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Mendoza.
  2. In Pima #9 (Graham County) and Precinct 011 (Pima County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 43 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    245 precincts, R² 0.990, 60 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -29,549 to 30,204 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1
    Ciscomani $4,135,163 cash on hand; Mendoza $3,260,877.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,101 households, 51,303 dials, about 2,688 live conversations: an estimated $6,781 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,781 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.