Arizona · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

How Juan Ciscomani wins.

Mendoza starts 2.7 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Ciscomani needs 9,713 net votes, and the math closes using 43 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 109 (Pima County), Precinct 011 (Pima County) and Precinct 172 (Pima County).

9,713

net votes between Ciscomani and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

2.7 pts

Mendoza lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Ciscomani can win. The math closes using 43 percent of what history allows.

Odds today29%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find9,713

WherePrecinct 109 (Pima County), Precinct 011 (Pima County), Precinct 172 (Pima County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Mendoza +2.7. Juan Ciscomani needs 9,713 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

177,545 votes.

That is half of the 355,089 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ciscomani stands today, and what is missing:

170,714 Juan Ciscomani baseline

180,427 JoAnna Mendoza baseline

Starting line: Mendoza +2.7 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

29% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ciscomani wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

29%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves43%

The plan on this page sits at 43%. Median outcome at this setting: Ciscomani by 346.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,801

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 20,280

Who. Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,280 leaning Mendoza today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ciscomani needs to win 22 percent of the ones now leaning Mendoza.

Mobilize

1,107

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 27,701

Who. At least 27,701 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ciscomani's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

291

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,913

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ciscomani's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 10,199 net votes against a gap of 9,713. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 23% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 109 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +13. 3.5% split their ticket.
+264
02
Precinct 011 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +41. 4.1% split their ticket. About 773 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+252
03
Precinct 172 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +1. 3.6% split their ticket.
+249
04
Pima #9 (Graham County)mobilize
Starting line Ciscomani +68. 3.9% split their ticket. About 634 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+245
05
Precinct 224 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +3. 3.8% split their ticket.
+193
06
Precinct 104 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Mendoza +6. 3.7% split their ticket.
+180
07
Precinct 006 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +12. 4.0% split their ticket.
+175
08
Precinct 179 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +2. 3.5% split their ticket.
+168
09
Precinct 123 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Mendoza +20. 4.6% split their ticket.
+156
10
Whetstone (Cochise County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +43. 3.8% split their ticket. About 369 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+152
11
Precinct 275 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Mendoza +5. 3.7% split their ticket.
+152
12
Precinct 194 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Ciscomani +1. 3.5% split their ticket.
+149

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 109 (Pima County) carries the most.

Precinct 109 (Pima County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 264. It sits at Ciscomani +13 on our starting line, and 3.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Pima #9 (Graham County) is a turnout race.

Ciscomani's side leads Pima #9 (Graham County) by about 68 points on our starting line, and it cast about 634 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 148 votes there.

Precinct 123 (Pima County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 123 (Pima County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Ciscomani has the cash edge.

As of July 1, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Ciscomani had $4.14 million in cash on hand to Mendoza's $3.26 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ciscomani's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 245
Slope: 0.979
R²: 0.990
Residual SD: 2.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 60

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ciscomani's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ciscomani, with Mendoza, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,801 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 27,701 of them live where Ciscomani is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 2.5 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 0.7 points; Gallego carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 5.1 points.

Ciscomani wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Mendoza.
In Pima #9 (Graham County) and Precinct 011 (Pima County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 43 percent of what recent Arizona results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

2,688 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 51,303 dials to 17,101 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

51K

dials across three attempts

2,688

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,781 at our published rates: 17,101 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

Juan Ciscomani (R)

U.S. representative for the 6th District since 2023; born in Hermosillo, Sonora, and raised in Tucson, he attended Pima Community College, earned a BA from the University of Arizona, and served as senior adviser to Gov. Doug Ducey and vice chair of the Arizona-Mexico Commission.

Cash on hand $4,135,163 and $6,172,867 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

JoAnna Mendoza (D)

Raised in a farmworker family in Pinal County, she served about two decades in the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps, holds a master's degree from Grand Canyon University, and later worked as a nonprofit leader, policy analyst and veteran services representative for Rep. Tom O'Halleran.

Cash on hand $3,260,877 and $7,354,808 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Jereme Peters (L)

Tucson resident who won the Libertarian nomination for the 6th District (Ballotpedia); his campaign presence is a Facebook page (Politics1).

Cash on hand $0 and $10,500 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through March 31, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Gary Swing (G)

Tucson resident with a BA and a master's degree in political science from the University of Colorado; a distance backpacker and former cultural events promoter.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Michael Dorland (I)

Tucson systems senior implementation analyst who has worked with computers since 1980 and has owned small businesses including a comic store; running as a write-in who takes no donations (Ballotpedia survey, Politics1).

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Mendoza +2.7. Juan Ciscomani needs 9,713 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Juan Ciscomani win Arizona's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Juan Ciscomani needs 9,713 net votes, and recent Arizona results show about 23,499 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 43 percent of that.

Where are the votes Juan Ciscomani needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 109 (Pima County), Precinct 011 (Pima County), Precinct 172 (Pima County), Pima #9 (Graham County), Precinct 224 (Pima County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Juan Ciscomani need to persuade?

About 4,400 voters who lean JoAnna Mendoza today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 22 percent of the 20,280 persuadable voters leaning JoAnna Mendoza.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.