Upset Brief · AZ-07 · Daniel Butierez Sr. (R) vs. Adelita Grijalva (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.7-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
55,977
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 005 (Pima County)
    Starting line Butierez +39. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,097 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +206
  2. 02
    Hidden Valley (Pinal County)
    Starting line Butierez +44. 4.5% split their ticket. About 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +114
  3. 03
    Precinct 041 (Pima County)
    Starting line Grijalva +23. 4.6% split their ticket.
    +83
  4. 04
    Precinct 222 (Pima County)
    Starting line Butierez +30. 5.0% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +77
  5. 05
    Crystal Gardens (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Grijalva +19. 5.8% split their ticket.
    +74
  6. 06
    Precinct 083 (Pima County)
    Starting line Butierez +25. 4.0% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +65

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,204 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Grijalva today.
    +4,204
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,121 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Butierez's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +456
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Butierez's way.
    +59

Plus a national shift of 25.7 points of margin (51,257 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Butierez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Grijalva.
  2. In Precinct 005 (Pima County) and Hidden Valley (Pinal County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 25.7 points toward Butierez's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    201 precincts, R² 0.965, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -74,713 to -27,924 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1
    Butierez $11,399 cash on hand; Grijalva $427,977.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,762 households, 26,285 dials, about 1,377 live conversations: an estimated $4,128 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,128 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.