Arizona · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Daniel Butierez Sr..

Q: Can Daniel Butierez Sr. win Arizona's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,719 net votes; the gap is 55,977. The rest would take a 25.7-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Daniel Butierez Sr. needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 005 (Pima County), Hidden Valley (Pinal County), Precinct 041 (Pima County), Precinct 222 (Pima County), Crystal Gardens (Maricopa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Daniel Butierez Sr. need to persuade?

About 2,102 voters who lean Adelita Grijalva today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,204 persuadable voters leaning Adelita Grijalva.

Q: When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Grijalva starts 28.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,719 net votes toward Butierez, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 25.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Butierez the one standing if one comes.

55,977

net votes between Butierez and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

28.0 pts

Grijalva lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find55,977

WherePrecinct 005 (Pima County), Hidden Valley (Pinal County), Precinct 041 (Pima County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Grijalva +27.5. Daniel Butierez Sr. needs 54,990 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

99,911 votes.

That is half of the 199,820 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Butierez stands today, and what is missing:

71,677 Daniel Butierez Sr. baseline

127,654 Adelita Grijalva baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Butierez wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Butierez short by 51,143.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,204

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,204

Who. 4,204 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Grijalva today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Butierez needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Grijalva.

Mobilize

456

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,121

Who. At least 4,121 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Butierez's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 168

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Butierez's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,719 net votes against a gap of 55,977. Still 51,258 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 25.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 21% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 005 (Pima County)mobilize
Starting line Butierez +39. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,097 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+206
02
Hidden Valley (Pinal County)mobilize
Starting line Butierez +44. 4.5% split their ticket. About 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+114
03
Precinct 041 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +23. 4.6% split their ticket.
+83
04
Precinct 222 (Pima County)mobilize
Starting line Butierez +30. 5.0% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+77
05
Crystal Gardens (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +19. 5.8% split their ticket.
+74
06
Precinct 083 (Pima County)mobilize
Starting line Butierez +25. 4.0% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+65
07
Devonshire (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +9. 4.2% split their ticket.
+63
08
Precinct 021 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +15. 5.0% split their ticket.
+63
09
Orme (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +26. 5.8% split their ticket.
+62
10
Precinct 227 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Butierez +5. 3.6% split their ticket.
+60
11
Precinct 041 (Yuma County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +13. 9.9% split their ticket.
+60
12
Precinct 053 (Pima County)persuade
Starting line Grijalva +46. 5.5% split their ticket.
+59

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 005 (Pima County) carries the most.

Precinct 005 (Pima County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 206. It sits at Butierez +39 on our starting line, and 4.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Hidden Valley (Pinal County) is a turnout race.

Butierez's side leads Hidden Valley (Pinal County) by about 44 points on our starting line, and it cast about 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 85 votes there.

Precinct 041 (Yuma County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 041 (Yuma County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 1, 2026, Grijalva had $428K in cash on hand to Butierez's $11K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Butierez's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 201
Slope: 1.003
R²: 0.965
Residual SD: 5.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 41

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Butierez's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Butierez, with Grijalva, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,204 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,121 of them live where Butierez is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 26.9 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.1 points; Gallego carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 30.1 points.

Butierez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Grijalva.
In Precinct 005 (Pima County) and Hidden Valley (Pinal County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 25.7 points toward Butierez's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,377 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 26,285 dials to 8,762 households, before the last ballot is cast.

8,762

households on the target list

26K

dials across three attempts

1,377

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,128 at our published rates: 8,762 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Daniel Butierez Sr. (R)

A Tucson-born painting contractor with a background in construction who campaigns on tax cuts, job growth and more resources for the Border Patrol.

Cash on hand $11,399 and $224,367 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Adelita Grijalva (D)

A Tucson native who succeeded her father, Raul Grijalva, in the U.S. House in November 2025, she previously served on the Pima County Board of Supervisors (2021 to 2025) and the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board, and worked with the Pima County Teen Court juvenile diversion program for more than 25 years. She holds a BA in political science from the University of Arizona.

Cash on hand $427,977 and $2,285,639 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Grijalva +27.5. Daniel Butierez Sr. needs 54,990 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Daniel Butierez Sr. win Arizona's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,719 net votes; the gap is 55,977. The rest would take a 25.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Daniel Butierez Sr. needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 005 (Pima County), Hidden Valley (Pinal County), Precinct 041 (Pima County), Precinct 222 (Pima County), Crystal Gardens (Maricopa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Daniel Butierez Sr. need to persuade?

About 2,102 voters who lean Adelita Grijalva today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,204 persuadable voters leaning Adelita Grijalva.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.