Upset Brief · AZ-08 · Bernadette Greene Placentia (D) vs. Abraham Hamadeh (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.2-point national wave.

2%
odds today
5%
odds with the plan
42,286
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    El Caro (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Greene Placentia +31. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +172
  2. 02
    Harmont (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Greene Placentia +20. 5.2% split their ticket. About 823 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +110
  3. 03
    Butler (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Greene Placentia +18. 4.8% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +105
  4. 04
    Frontier (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Hamadeh +24. 5.0% split their ticket.
    +103
  5. 05
    Desert Sage (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Hamadeh +19. 4.2% split their ticket.
    +99
  6. 06
    Cholla (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Greene Placentia +12. 5.6% split their ticket. About 756 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +99

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,710 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hamadeh today.
    +6,710
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 11,383 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Greene Placentia's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +742
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Greene Placentia's way.
    +126

Plus a national shift of 11.2 points of margin (34,708 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Greene Placentia wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hamadeh.
  2. In El Caro (Maricopa County) and Butler (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 11.2 points toward Greene Placentia's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    173 precincts, R² 0.986, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,490 to 947 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through March 31
    Placentia $190,394 cash on hand; Hamadeh $384,185.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,362 households, 52,087 dials, about 2,729 live conversations: an estimated $6,884 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,884 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.