Arizona · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Bernadette Greene Placentia.

Hamadeh starts 13.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,578 net votes toward Greene Placentia, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 11.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Greene Placentia the one standing if one comes.

42,286

net votes between Greene Placentia and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

13.6 pts

Hamadeh lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.2-point national wave.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan5%

Net votes to find42,286

WhereEl Caro (Maricopa County), Harmont (Maricopa County), Butler (Maricopa County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hamadeh +34.3. Bernadette Greene Placentia needs 106,733 net votes. Odds 0% today, 9% with the plan.

The number

155,608 votes.

That is half of the 311,214 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Greene Placentia stands today, and what is missing:

134,061 Bernadette Greene Placentia baseline

176,346 Abraham Hamadeh baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 5% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Greene Placentia wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Greene Placentia short by 34,704.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

6,710

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,710

Who. 6,710 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hamadeh today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Greene Placentia needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hamadeh.

Mobilize

742

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,383

Who. At least 11,383 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Greene Placentia's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

126

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 361

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Greene Placentia's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,578 net votes against a gap of 42,286. Still 34,708 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 11.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
El Caro (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Greene Placentia +31. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+172
02
Harmont (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Greene Placentia +20. 5.2% split their ticket. About 823 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+110
03
Butler (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Greene Placentia +18. 4.8% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+105
04
Frontier (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Hamadeh +24. 5.0% split their ticket.
+103
05
Desert Sage (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Hamadeh +19. 4.2% split their ticket.
+99
06
Cholla (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Greene Placentia +12. 5.6% split their ticket. About 756 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+99
07
Kaler (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Greene Placentia +14. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,018 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+97
08
Las Brisas (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Hamadeh +19. 4.9% split their ticket.
+93
09
Zuni Hills (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Hamadeh +35. 4.1% split their ticket.
+92
10
Palo Verde (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Greene Placentia +5. 5.7% split their ticket.
+89
11
Desert Harbor (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Hamadeh +14. 5.4% split their ticket.
+84
12
Granite Falls (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Hamadeh +14. 5.1% split their ticket.
+83

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

El Caro (Maricopa County) carries the most.

El Caro (Maricopa County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 172. It sits at Greene Placentia +31 on our starting line, and 4.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Butler (Maricopa County) is a turnout race.

Greene Placentia's side leads Butler (Maricopa County) by about 18 points on our starting line, and it cast about 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 62 votes there.

Palo Verde (Maricopa County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Palo Verde (Maricopa County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,578 net votes. The gap is 42,286. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.4 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Greene Placentia's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 173
Slope: 1.059
R²: 0.986
Residual SD: 2.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 27

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Greene Placentia's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Greene Placentia, with Hamadeh, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,710 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 11,383 of them live where Greene Placentia is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 13.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 16.3 points; Lake carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 7.6 points.

Greene Placentia wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hamadeh.
In El Caro (Maricopa County) and Butler (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 11.2 points toward Greene Placentia's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,729 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 52,087 dials to 17,362 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

52K

dials across three attempts

2,729

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,884 at our published rates: 17,362 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Bernadette Greene Placentia (D)

Born in Galesburg, Illinois, she attended the University of Arizona on an Army ROTC scholarship and spent 27 years and more than 4 million miles as a long-haul truck driver and owner of her own trucking company. A working-class Democrat raised in a union family, she has also worked as a campaign manager for multiple candidates.

Cash on hand $190,394 and $209,358 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through March 31, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Abraham Hamadeh (R)

U.S. representative for the 8th District since 2025, an attorney, former Maricopa County prosecutor and U.S. Army Reserve intelligence officer holding the rank of captain; raised in Phoenix, he holds a bachelor's degree in political science from Arizona State University and a JD from the University of Arizona.

Cash on hand $384,185 and $1,206,361 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hamadeh +34.3. Bernadette Greene Placentia needs 106,733 net votes. Odds 0% today, 9% with the plan.

Questions

Can Bernadette Greene Placentia win Arizona's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,578 net votes; the gap is 42,286. The rest would take a 11.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Bernadette Greene Placentia needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: El Caro (Maricopa County), Harmont (Maricopa County), Butler (Maricopa County), Frontier (Maricopa County), Desert Sage (Maricopa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Bernadette Greene Placentia need to persuade?

About 3,355 voters who lean Abraham Hamadeh today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,710 persuadable voters leaning Abraham Hamadeh.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.