Upset Brief · AZ-09 · Danielle Sterbinsky (D) vs. Paul Gosar (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 28.1-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
85,450
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 7
Where
  1. 01
    Lake Havasu South (Mohave County)
    Starting line Gosar +59. 3.4% split their ticket.
    +312
  2. 02
    Bullhead City (Mohave County)
    Starting line Gosar +45. 3.7% split their ticket.
    +257
  3. 03
    Mohave Valley (Mohave County)
    Starting line Gosar +53. 3.9% split their ticket.
    +173
  4. 04
    Kingman East (Mohave County)
    Starting line Gosar +56. 4.3% split their ticket.
    +145
  5. 05
    Lake Havasu North (Mohave County)
    Starting line Gosar +63. 3.3% split their ticket.
    +124
  6. 06
    Independence (Maricopa County)
    Starting line Sterbinsky +20. 5.7% split their ticket. About 1,002 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,900 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gosar today.
    +5,900
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,389 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Sterbinsky's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +423
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sterbinsky's way.
    +84

Plus a national shift of 28.1 points of margin (79,043 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Sterbinsky wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gosar.
  2. In Independence (Maricopa County) and Soledad (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 28.1 points toward Sterbinsky's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    165 precincts, R² 0.995, 24 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -111,387 to -46,304 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 1
    Sterbinsky $25,745 cash on hand; Gosar $303,214.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,025 households, 36,076 dials, about 1,890 live conversations: an estimated $5,366 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,366 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arizona races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.