Arizona · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Danielle Sterbinsky.

Gosar starts 30.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,407 net votes toward Sterbinsky, a 2.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 28.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Sterbinsky the one standing if one comes.

85,450

net votes between Sterbinsky and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 7.

30.4 pts

Gosar lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Arizona races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 28.1-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find85,450

WhereLake Havasu South (Mohave County), Bullhead City (Mohave County), Mohave Valley (Mohave County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Gosar +46.3. Danielle Sterbinsky needs 130,210 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

140,503 votes.

That is half of the 281,005 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Sterbinsky stands today, and what is missing:

97,451 Danielle Sterbinsky baseline

182,901 Paul Gosar baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Sterbinsky wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Sterbinsky short by 78,747.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,900

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,900

Who. 5,900 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gosar today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Sterbinsky needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gosar.

Mobilize

423

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,389

Who. At least 5,389 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Sterbinsky's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 240

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sterbinsky's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,407 net votes against a gap of 85,450. Still 79,043 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 28.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 26% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Lake Havasu South (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +59. 3.4% split their ticket.
+312
02
Bullhead City (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +45. 3.7% split their ticket.
+257
03
Mohave Valley (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +53. 3.9% split their ticket.
+173
04
Kingman East (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +56. 4.3% split their ticket.
+145
05
Lake Havasu North (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +63. 3.3% split their ticket.
+124
06
Independence (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Sterbinsky +20. 5.7% split their ticket. About 1,002 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+119
07
Soledad (Maricopa County)mobilize
Starting line Sterbinsky +17. 4.6% split their ticket. About 989 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+97
08
Kingman South (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +51. 3.1% split their ticket.
+97
09
Pebble Creek (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +18. 2.9% split their ticket.
+95
10
Kingman North (Mohave County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +50. 4.2% split their ticket.
+92
11
Wigwam (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +12. 4.6% split their ticket.
+85
12
Rio Paseo (Maricopa County)persuade
Starting line Gosar +2. 4.6% split their ticket.
+79

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Lake Havasu South (Mohave County) carries the most.

Lake Havasu South (Mohave County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 312. It sits at Gosar +59 on our starting line, and 3.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Independence (Maricopa County) is a turnout race.

Sterbinsky's side leads Independence (Maricopa County) by about 20 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,002 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 68 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 1, 2026, Gosar had $303K in cash on hand to Sterbinsky's $26K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 6,407 net votes. The gap is 85,450. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Sterbinsky's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 165
Slope: 1.034
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 1.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 24

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Sterbinsky's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 7.

Now to October 6
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Sterbinsky, with Gosar, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 7 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,900 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, but voters can drop them off in their county through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,389 of them live where Sterbinsky is favored. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can drop off a sealed early ballot at a drop box or voting location in their county through 7 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Arizona has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 30.6 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 31.1 points; Lake carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 22.6 points.

Sterbinsky wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gosar.
In Independence (Maricopa County) and Soledad (Maricopa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 28.1 points toward Sterbinsky's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,890 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 36,076 dials to 12,025 households, before the last ballot is cast.

12K

households on the target list

36K

dials across three attempts

1,890

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,366 at our published rates: 12,025 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Danielle Sterbinsky (D)

An Austin, Texas-born U.S. Navy veteran and certified human resources professional who lives in Wittmann, she holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Hawaii West Oahu and a graduate degree from Grand Canyon University, with a background in industrial-organizational psychology.

Cash on hand $25,745 and $354,383 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Paul Gosar (R)

U.S. representative since 2011 (9th District since 2023), born in Rock Springs, Wyoming; he ran a dental practice in Flagstaff for more than two decades, earned BS and DDS degrees from Creighton University, and was the Arizona Dental Association's 2001 Dentist of the Year and later its president.

Cash on hand $303,214 and $580,043 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 1, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

William Perry (I)

Also on the ballot

G. Seville Hatch (I)

A Dallas-born engineer with a career in satellite and telecommunications, affiliated with the Society of Satellite Professionals and the World Teleport Association.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gosar +46.3. Danielle Sterbinsky needs 130,210 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Danielle Sterbinsky win Arizona's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,407 net votes; the gap is 85,450. The rest would take a 28.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Danielle Sterbinsky needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Lake Havasu South (Mohave County), Bullhead City (Mohave County), Mohave Valley (Mohave County), Kingman East (Mohave County), Lake Havasu North (Mohave County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Danielle Sterbinsky need to persuade?

About 2,950 voters who lean Paul Gosar today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,900 persuadable voters leaning Paul Gosar.

When does early voting start in Arizona in 2026?

Arizona mails early ballots starting October 7, 2026, and in-person early voting runs October 7 through October 30. The registration deadline is October 5 and the early ballot request deadline is 5 p.m. on October 23. Early ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count, but sealed early ballots can be dropped off at a drop box or voting location in the voter's county through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Arizona does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arizona Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arizona Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.