Hill can win. The plan uses 44 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Precinct 96 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Jones +78. 12.6% split their ticket.
   +196
2. 02
   Precinct 68 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Jones +24. 12.1% split their ticket.
   +189
3. 03
   Precinct 63 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line even. 12.7% split their ticket.
   +172
4. 04
   Precinct 80 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Jones +37. 19.3% split their ticket.
   +170
5. 05
   Precinct 67 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Jones +8. 15.5% split their ticket.
   +162
6. 06
   Precinct 64 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Jones +6. 12.4% split their ticket.
   +161

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  17,716 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Jones, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +7,739
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 35,052 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hill's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1,662
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hill's way.
  +378

1. Hill wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Jones.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 44 percent of what recent Arkansas results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  408 precincts, R² 0.992, 81 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,571 to 21,871 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Hill $2,967,541 cash on hand; Jones $191,398.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  18,433 households, 55,300 dials, about 2,898 live conversations: an estimated $6,852 at published rates.