Arkansas · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

How French Hill wins.

Jones starts 3.8 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Hill needs 9,313 net votes, and the plan uses 44 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 96 (Pulaski County), Precinct 68 (Pulaski County) and Precinct 63 (Pulaski County).

9,313

net votes between Hill and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

3.7 pts

Jones lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

Hill can win. The plan uses 44 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find9,313

WherePrecinct 96 (Pulaski County), Precinct 68 (Pulaski County), Precinct 63 (Pulaski County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Jones +3.7. French Hill needs 9,378 net votes. Odds 23% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

125,230 votes.

That is half of the 250,459 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hill stands today, and what is missing:

118,107 French Hill baseline

127,419 Chris Jones baseline

Starting line: Jones +3.8 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

23% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hill wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

23%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves44%

The plan on this page sits at 44%. Median outcome at this setting: Hill by 429.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,739

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 17,716

Who. 17,716 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Jones, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hill needs to win 22 percent of the ones now leaning Jones.

Mobilize

1,662

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 35,052

Who. At least 35,052 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hill's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

378

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,470

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hill's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 9,779 net votes against a gap of 9,313. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 96 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +78. 12.6% split their ticket.
+196
02
Precinct 68 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +24. 12.1% split their ticket.
+189
03
Precinct 63 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line even. 12.7% split their ticket.
+172
04
Precinct 80 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +37. 19.3% split their ticket.
+170
05
Precinct 67 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +8. 15.5% split their ticket.
+162
06
Precinct 64 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +6. 12.4% split their ticket.
+161
07
Precinct 61 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +17. 10.5% split their ticket.
+161
08
Precinct 72 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +32. 10.1% split their ticket.
+143
09
Precinct 91 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +29. 18.2% split their ticket.
+140
10
Precinct 92 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +25. 19.8% split their ticket.
+140
11
Precinct 21 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +23. 10.3% split their ticket.
+138
12
Precinct 5 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Jones +3. 8.7% split their ticket.
+137

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 96 (Pulaski County) carries the most.

Precinct 96 (Pulaski County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 196. It sits at Jones +78 on our starting line, and 12.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 92 (Pulaski County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 92 (Pulaski County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 19.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Hill has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Hill had $2.97 million in cash on hand to Jones's $191K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hill's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 408
Slope: 0.943
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 3.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 81

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hill's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hill, with Jones, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,739 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 30
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Mail requests are due October 27.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 35,052 of them live where Hill is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, drop boxes are not allowed, and a copy of photo ID goes in the envelope.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Arkansas has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.5 points; Sanders carried the 2022 governor's race by 12.7 points; Boozman carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 21.5 points.

Hill wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Jones.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 44 percent of what recent Arkansas results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

2,898 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 55,300 dials to 18,433 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K

households on the target list

55K

dials across three attempts

2,898

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,852 at our published rates: 18,433 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

French Hill (R)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2015 and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee since 2025. A Little Rock banker, he founded and led Delta Trust and Banking Corporation and served as a deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury and on the White House Economic Policy Council staff under President George H. W. Bush.

Cash on hand $2,967,541 and $4,421,510 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Chris Jones (D)

Little Rock nuclear engineer and ordained minister who led the Arkansas Regional Innovation Hub as executive director and served as an assistant dean for graduate education at MIT. He holds bachelor's degrees in mathematics and physics from Morehouse College and, from MIT, master's degrees in nuclear engineering and in technology and policy plus a Ph.D. in urban studies and planning.

Cash on hand $191,398 and $1,174,414 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Jones +3.7. French Hill needs 9,378 net votes. Odds 23% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can French Hill win Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. French Hill needs 9,313 net votes, and recent Arkansas results show about 22,386 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 44 percent of that.

Where are the votes French Hill needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 96 (Pulaski County), Precinct 68 (Pulaski County), Precinct 63 (Pulaski County), Precinct 80 (Pulaski County), Precinct 67 (Pulaski County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does French Hill need to persuade?

About 3,870 voters who lean Chris Jones today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 22 percent of the 17,716 persuadable voters leaning Chris Jones.

When does early voting start in Arkansas in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Arkansas runs October 19 through November 2, 2026, weekdays 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Saturdays 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., closing at 5 p.m. on November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mail, fax or email requests are due October 27, and ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 5, photo ID is required, and Arkansas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arkansas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.