Upset Brief · AR-03 · Robb Ryerse (D) vs. Steve Womack (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.8-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
68,951
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Fay 08 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ryerse +51. 5.5% split their ticket. About 286 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +86
  2. 02
    Fay 20 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ryerse +18. 7.1% split their ticket. About 641 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82
  3. 03
    Fay 06 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ryerse +26. 7.5% split their ticket. About 235 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78
  4. 04
    Fay 40 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ryerse +13. 7.5% split their ticket. About 618 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +76
  5. 05
    Fay 19 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ryerse +31. 6.7% split their ticket. About 280 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  6. 06
    Fay 05 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ryerse +53. 5.2% split their ticket. About 253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +69

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,484 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Womack today.
    +6,484
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,001 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ryerse's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +722
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ryerse's way.
    +973

Plus a national shift of 25.8 points of margin (60,772 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Ryerse wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Womack.
  2. In Fay 08 (Washington County) and Fay 05 (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 25.8 points toward Ryerse's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    757 precincts, R² 0.972, 150 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,372 to -33,414 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Ryerse $5,951 cash on hand; Womack $2,404,276.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,698 households, 47,093 dials, about 2,468 live conversations: an estimated $6,224 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,224 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.