Arkansas · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Robb Ryerse.

Q: Can Robb Ryerse win Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,179 net votes against a gap of 68,951; the rest would take a 25.8-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Q: Where are the votes Robb Ryerse needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fay 08 (Washington County), Fay 20 (Washington County), Fay 06 (Washington County), Fay 40 (Washington County), Fay 19 (Washington County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Robb Ryerse need to persuade?

About 3,242 voters who lean Steve Womack today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,484 persuadable voters leaning Steve Womack.

Q: When does early voting start in Arkansas in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Arkansas runs October 19 through November 2, 2026, weekdays 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Saturdays 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., closing at 5 p.m. on November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mail, fax or email requests are due October 27, and ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 5, photo ID is required, and Arkansas does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Womack starts 29.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,179 net votes toward Ryerse, a 3.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 25.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Ryerse the one standing if one comes.

68,951

net votes between Ryerse and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

29.3 pts

Womack lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find68,951

WhereFay 08 (Washington County), Fay 20 (Washington County), Fay 06 (Washington County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Womack +30.7. Robb Ryerse needs 91,966 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

117,668 votes.

That is half of the 235,334 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ryerse stands today, and what is missing:

79,169 Robb Ryerse baseline

148,120 Steve Womack baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ryerse wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Ryerse short by 60,867.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

6,484

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,484

Who. 6,484 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Womack today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ryerse needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Womack.

Mobilize

722

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,001

Who. At least 7,001 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ryerse's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

973

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,780

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ryerse's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,179 net votes against a gap of 68,951. Still 60,772 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 25.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 10% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Fay 08 (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ryerse +51. 5.5% split their ticket. About 286 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
02
Fay 20 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +18. 7.1% split their ticket. About 641 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+82
03
Fay 06 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +26. 7.5% split their ticket. About 235 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
04
Fay 40 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +13. 7.5% split their ticket. About 618 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+76
05
Fay 19 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +31. 6.7% split their ticket. About 280 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+73
06
Fay 05 (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ryerse +53. 5.2% split their ticket. About 253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+69
07
Fay 09B (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ryerse +42. 4.3% split their ticket. About 308 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
08
Fay 28 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +1. 12.0% split their ticket.
+59
09
Fay 12 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +9. 8.6% split their ticket.
+58
10
Eureka Springs (Carroll County)mobilize
Starting line Ryerse +32. 3.8% split their ticket. About 242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+58
11
Fay 26 (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ryerse +25. 6.2% split their ticket. About 365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
12
Fay 22 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Ryerse +32. 5.7% split their ticket. About 211 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+54

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Fay 08 (Washington County) carries the most.

Fay 08 (Washington County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 86. It sits at Ryerse +51 on our starting line, and 5.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Fay 05 (Washington County) is a turnout target.

Ryerse's side leads Fay 05 (Washington County) by about 53 points on our starting line, and it cast about 253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 45 votes there.

Fay 28 (Washington County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Fay 28 (Washington County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Womack had $2.40 million in cash on hand to Ryerse's $5,951. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ryerse's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 757
Slope: 0.959
R²: 0.972
Residual SD: 4.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 150

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ryerse's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ryerse, with Womack, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,484 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 30
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Mail requests are due October 27.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,001 of them live where Ryerse is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, drop boxes are not allowed, and a copy of photo ID goes in the envelope.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Arkansas has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 24.9 points; Sanders carried the 2022 governor's race by 21.3 points; Boozman carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 29.9 points.

Ryerse wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Womack.
In Fay 08 (Washington County) and Fay 05 (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 25.8 points toward Ryerse's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,468 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 47,093 dials to 15,698 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

47K

dials across three attempts

2,468

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,224 at our published rates: 15,698 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Robb Ryerse (D)

Springdale resident of about 20 years who, with his wife Vanessa, started the Vintage Fellowship congregation in Northwest Arkansas in 2005 and pastored it for 15 years. A nonprofit leader, he has worked as political director of Vote Common Good, a faith-based organization that engages religious voters.

Cash on hand $5,951 and $120,526 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Steve Womack (R)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2011 and a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee who chaired the House Budget Committee (2018 to 2019). A former mayor of Rogers, he retired from the Arkansas Army National Guard as a colonel.

Cash on hand $2,404,276 and $1,871,761 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Bobby Wilson (L)

Bentonville resident and North Carolina native whose management career includes guiding a company through ISO certification and managing a trim lumber yard in Northwest Arkansas.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Womack +30.7. Robb Ryerse needs 91,966 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Robb Ryerse win Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,179 net votes against a gap of 68,951; the rest would take a 25.8-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Robb Ryerse needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fay 08 (Washington County), Fay 20 (Washington County), Fay 06 (Washington County), Fay 40 (Washington County), Fay 19 (Washington County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Robb Ryerse need to persuade?

About 3,242 voters who lean Steve Womack today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,484 persuadable voters leaning Steve Womack.

When does early voting start in Arkansas in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Arkansas runs October 19 through November 2, 2026, weekdays 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Saturdays 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., closing at 5 p.m. on November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mail, fax or email requests are due October 27, and ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 5, photo ID is required, and Arkansas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arkansas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.