A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 110 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Russell +72. 5.0% split their ticket. About 235 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +90
2. 02
   Precinct 109 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Russell +63. 4.7% split their ticket. About 221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +72
3. 03
   Precinct 92 (Garland County)

   Starting line Westerman +42. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +61
4. 04
   Precinct 111 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Russell +76. 4.4% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +55
5. 05
   Precinct 112 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Russell +67. 5.3% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +53
6. 06
   Precinct 94 (Garland County)

   Starting line Westerman +46. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +47

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,901 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Westerman today.
  +4,901
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 4,665 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Russell's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +886
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Russell's way.
  +313

Plus a national shift of 39.6 points of margin (87,884 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Russell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Westerman.
2. In Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) and Precinct 109 (Pulaski County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 39.6 points toward Russell's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  837 precincts, R² 0.992, 133 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -113,967 to -62,091 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Russell $907 cash on hand; Westerman $4,668,447.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  10,600 households, 31,799 dials, about 1,666 live conversations: an estimated $4,730 at published rates.