Arkansas · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James Russell.

Westerman starts 42.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,100 net votes toward Russell, a 2.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 39.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Russell the one standing if one comes.

93,984

net votes between Russell and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

42.4 pts

Westerman lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find93,984

WherePrecinct 110 (Pulaski County), Precinct 109 (Pulaski County), Precinct 92 (Garland County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Westerman +42.4. James Russell needs 93,984 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

110,845 votes.

That is half of the 221,688 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Russell stands today, and what is missing:

62,311 James Russell baseline

156,295 Bruce Westerman baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Russell wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Russell short by 87,983.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,901

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,901

Who. 4,901 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Westerman today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Russell needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Westerman.

Mobilize

886

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,665

Who. At least 4,665 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Russell's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

313

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 895

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Russell's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,100 net votes against a gap of 93,984. Still 87,884 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 39.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 10% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 110 (Pulaski County)mobilize
Starting line Russell +72. 5.0% split their ticket. About 235 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+90
02
Precinct 109 (Pulaski County)mobilize
Starting line Russell +63. 4.7% split their ticket. About 221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
03
Precinct 92 (Garland County)persuade
Starting line Westerman +42. 5.5% split their ticket.
+61
04
Precinct 111 (Pulaski County)mobilize
Starting line Russell +76. 4.4% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
05
Precinct 112 (Pulaski County)mobilize
Starting line Russell +67. 5.3% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+53
06
Precinct 94 (Garland County)persuade
Starting line Westerman +46. 5.5% split their ticket.
+47
07
Precinct 61 (Garland County)persuade
Starting line Westerman +43. 9.7% split their ticket.
+46
08
Precinct 11 (Garland County)persuade
Starting line Russell +12. 7.3% split their ticket.
+44
09
Arkadelphia Ward 5 (Clark County)persuade
Starting line Westerman +8. 10.9% split their ticket.
+41
10
Precinct 423 (Jefferson County)mobilize
Starting line Russell +88. 5.4% split their ticket. About 118 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+41
11
Precinct 44 (Garland County)persuade
Starting line Westerman +24. 8.0% split their ticket.
+39
12
Precinct 063 05 (Garland County)persuade
Starting line Westerman +34. 9.0% split their ticket.
+38

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) carries the most.

Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 90. It sits at Russell +72 on our starting line, and 5.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 109 (Pulaski County) is a turnout target.

Russell's side leads Precinct 109 (Pulaski County) by about 63 points on our starting line, and it cast about 221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 48 votes there.

Arkadelphia Ward 5 (Clark County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Arkadelphia Ward 5 (Clark County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 10.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Westerman had $4.67 million in cash on hand to Russell's under $1,000. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Russell's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 837
Slope: 0.957
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 133

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Russell's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Russell, with Westerman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,901 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 30
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Mail requests are due October 27.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,665 of them live where Russell is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, drop boxes are not allowed, and a copy of photo ID goes in the envelope.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Arkansas has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 39.9 points; Sanders carried the 2022 governor's race by 37.4 points; Boozman carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 42.8 points.

Russell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Westerman.
In Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) and Precinct 109 (Pulaski County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 39.6 points toward Russell's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,666 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 31,799 dials to 10,600 households, before the last ballot is cast.

11K

households on the target list

32K

dials across three attempts

1,666

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,730 at our published rates: 10,600 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

James Russell (D)

Little Rock mental health advocate and small business owner with a professional background in health care who has provided mental health services statewide since 2014. He served in the U.S. Army National Guard in 1996.

Cash on hand $907 and $5,853 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Bruce Westerman (R)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2015 and chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee since 2023. An engineer and forester from Hot Springs, he holds an engineering degree from the University of Arkansas and a master's in forestry from Yale, and previously served as majority leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives.

Cash on hand $4,668,447 and $2,562,973 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Westerman +42.4. James Russell needs 93,984 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can James Russell win Arkansas's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,100 net votes against a gap of 93,984; the rest would take a 39.6-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes James Russell needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 110 (Pulaski County), Precinct 109 (Pulaski County), Precinct 92 (Garland County), Precinct 111 (Pulaski County), Precinct 112 (Pulaski County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James Russell need to persuade?

About 2,450 voters who lean Bruce Westerman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,901 persuadable voters leaning Bruce Westerman.

When does early voting start in Arkansas in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Arkansas runs October 19 through November 2, 2026, weekdays 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Saturdays 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., closing at 5 p.m. on November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mail, fax or email requests are due October 27, and ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 5, photo ID is required, and Arkansas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arkansas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.