Upset Brief · Arkansas U.S. Senate · Hallie Shoffner (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R), incumbent

Shoffner can win. The plan uses 86 percent of what history allows.

7%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
67,416
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Pulaski County
    Starting line Shoffner +42. 10,882 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 30,350 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,232
  2. 02
    Benton County
    Starting line Cotton +7. 8,121 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 29,230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +8,362
  3. 03
    Washington County
    Starting line Shoffner +19. 5,852 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 26,785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +7,569
  4. 04
    Saline County
    Starting line Cotton +19. 3,340 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 14,507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,451
  5. 05
    Faulkner County
    Starting line Cotton +8. 3,169 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 14,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,359
  6. 06
    Sebastian County
    Starting line Cotton +15. 2,691 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 11,090 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,595

The top 12 counties carry 73% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    70,792 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Cotton, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +60,644
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 59,419 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shoffner's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +7,731
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Shoffner's way.
    +2,412
What has to be true
  1. Shoffner wins 43 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cotton.
  2. In the precincts Shoffner's side carries in Pulaski County and Washington County, 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 86 percent of what recent Arkansas results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    2,689 precincts, R² 0.992, 492 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -78,928 to 87,269 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Shoffner $863,578 cash on hand; Cotton $9,931,885.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    114,631 households, 343,892 dials, about 18,020 live conversations: an estimated $31,512 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $31,512 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.