Arkansas · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Hallie Shoffner wins.

Cotton starts 7.2 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Shoffner needs 67,416 net votes, and the plan uses 86 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Pulaski County, Benton County and Washington County.

67,416

net votes between Shoffner and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

7.3 pts

Cotton lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

Shoffner can win. The plan uses 86 percent of what history allows.

Odds today7%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find67,416

WherePulaski County, Benton County, Washington County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Cotton +7.3. Hallie Shoffner needs 71,142 net votes. Odds 7% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

460,870 votes.

That is half of the 921,738 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Shoffner stands today, and what is missing:

418,594 Hallie Shoffner baseline

486,010 Tom Cotton baseline

Starting line: Cotton +7.2 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

7% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Shoffner wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves86%

The plan on this page sits at 86%. Median outcome at this setting: Shoffner by 2,627.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

61K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 70,792

Who. 70,792 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Cotton, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Shoffner needs to win 43 percent of the ones now leaning Cotton.

Mobilize

7,731

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 59,419

Who. At least 59,419 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shoffner's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

2,412

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,046

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Shoffner's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 70,787 net votes against a gap of 67,416. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 73% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Pulaski Countypersuade
Starting line Shoffner +42. 10,882 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 30,350 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+15,232
02
Benton Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +7. 8,121 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 29,230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,362
03
Washington Countypersuade
Starting line Shoffner +19. 5,852 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 26,785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,569
04
Saline Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +19. 3,340 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 14,507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,451
05
Faulkner Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +8. 3,169 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 14,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,359
06
Sebastian Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +15. 2,691 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 11,090 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,595
07
Garland Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +14. 2,404 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 9,624 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,320
08
Craighead Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +13. 2,159 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 9,536 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,215
09
Jefferson Countypersuade
Starting line Shoffner +40. 1,538 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 3,997 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,194
10
Lonoke Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +29. 1,691 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 8,099 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,571
11
White Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +37. 1,769 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 7,727 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,515
12
Pope Countypersuade
Starting line Cotton +28. 1,357 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 6,584 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,390

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Pulaski County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Pulaski County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 15,232. It sits at Shoffner +42 on our starting line.

Washington County is a turnout target.

In the precincts Shoffner's side carries in Washington County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 1,758 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Cotton had $9.93 million in cash on hand to Shoffner's $864K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Shoffner's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 2,689
Slope: 0.956
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 492

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Shoffner's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Shoffner, with Cotton, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 60,644 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 30
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Mail requests are due October 27.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 59,419 of them live where Shoffner is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count, drop boxes are not allowed, and a copy of photo ID goes in the envelope.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Arkansas has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 30.6 points; Sanders carried the 2022 governor's race by 27.8 points; Boozman carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 34.6 points.

Shoffner wins 43 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cotton.
In the precincts Shoffner's side carries in Pulaski County and Washington County, 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 86 percent of what recent Arkansas results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

18,020 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 343,892 dials to 114,631 households, before the last ballot is cast.

115K

households on the target list

344K

dials across three attempts

18K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $31,512 at our published rates: 114,631 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Hallie Shoffner (D)

Newport native and sixth-generation Arkansas farmer who managed her family's roughly 2,000-acre rice, soybean and row-crop operation for nine years. She is a graduate of Vanderbilt University and holds a master's degree from the Clinton School of Public Service.

Cash on hand $863,578 and $2,269,114 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Tom Cotton (R)

U.S. senator since 2015 and chair of both the Senate Republican Conference and the Senate Intelligence Committee, after representing Arkansas's 4th District in the U.S. House (2013 to 2015). A Harvard College and Harvard Law School graduate, he served as a U.S. Army infantry officer in Iraq and Afghanistan and earned the Bronze Star.

Cash on hand $9,931,885 and $6,233,117 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Jeff Wadlin (L)

Bentonville businessman and strategy consultant who studied aerospace and mechanical engineering at the University of Virginia and earned an MBA from Northwestern. He co-founded an online auto-parts salvage company, led nationwide membership at Sam's Club, and now runs his own consulting business.

Cash on hand $8,469 and $28,778 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cotton +7.3. Hallie Shoffner needs 71,142 net votes. Odds 7% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Hallie Shoffner win the U.S. Senate race in Arkansas in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Hallie Shoffner needs 67,416 net votes, and recent Arkansas results show about 82,632 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 86 percent of that.

Where are the votes Hallie Shoffner needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Pulaski County, Benton County, Washington County, Saline County, Faulkner County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Hallie Shoffner need to persuade?

About 30,322 voters who lean Tom Cotton today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 43 percent of the 70,792 persuadable voters leaning Tom Cotton.

When does early voting start in Arkansas in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Arkansas runs October 19 through November 2, 2026, weekdays 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Saturdays 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., closing at 5 p.m. on November 2, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mail, fax or email requests are due October 27, and ballots must reach the county clerk by 7:30 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 5, photo ID is required, and Arkansas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Arkansas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.