Upset Brief · CA-01 · James Gallagher (R) vs. Mike McGuire (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.0-point national wave.

9%
odds today
16%
odds with the plan
25,384
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Unincorporated Butte County
    Starting line Gallagher +31. 2.3% split their ticket. About 6,924 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,125
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Tehama County
    Starting line Gallagher +50. 2.8% split their ticket. About 3,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +918
  3. 03
    Santa Rosa
    Starting line McGuire +48. 1.3% split their ticket.
    +499
  4. 04
    Chico
    Starting line McGuire +19. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +447
  5. 05
    Unincorporated Lassen County
    Starting line Gallagher +62. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,261 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +410
  6. 06
    Unincorporated Glenn County
    Starting line Gallagher +52. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,416 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +325

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 81% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,010 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGuire today.
    +3,010
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 24,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Gallagher's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,947
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gallagher's way.
    +525

Plus a national shift of 7 points of margin (18,902 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Gallagher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGuire.
  2. In Unincorporated Butte County and Unincorporated Tehama County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 7.0 points toward Gallagher's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (none is a head-to-head between the two November finalists), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    981 precincts, R² 0.992, 243 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -49,677 to 12,269 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Gallagher $332,899 cash on hand; McGuire $152,606.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,856 households, 65,568 dials, about 3,436 live conversations: an estimated $7,580 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.