California · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James Gallagher.

McGuire starts 9.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,482 net votes toward Gallagher, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 7.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Gallagher the one standing if one comes.

25,384

net votes between Gallagher and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

9.5 pts

McGuire lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.0-point national wave.

Odds today9%

Odds with the plan16%

Net votes to find25,384

WhereUnincorporated Butte County, Unincorporated Tehama County, Santa Rosa

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McGuire +9.5. James Gallagher needs 25,384 net votes. Odds 9% today, 16% with the plan.

The number

134,210 votes.

That is half of the 268,419 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Gallagher stands today, and what is missing:

119,776 James Gallagher baseline

145,161 Mike McGuire baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

9% today. 16% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Gallagher wins in

16%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Gallagher short by 18,795.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,010

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,010

Who. 3,010 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGuire today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Gallagher needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McGuire.

Mobilize

2,947

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 24,155

Who. At least 24,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Gallagher's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

525

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,500

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gallagher's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,482 net votes against a gap of 25,384. Still 18,902 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 81% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Unincorporated Butte Countymobilize
Starting line Gallagher +31. 2.3% split their ticket. About 6,924 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+1,125
02
Unincorporated Tehama Countymobilize
Starting line Gallagher +50. 2.8% split their ticket. About 3,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+918
03
Santa Rosapersuade
Starting line McGuire +48. 1.3% split their ticket.
+499
04
Chicopersuade
Starting line McGuire +19. 2.2% split their ticket.
+447
05
Unincorporated Lassen Countymobilize
Starting line Gallagher +62. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,261 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+410
06
Unincorporated Glenn Countymobilize
Starting line Gallagher +52. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,416 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+325
07
Paradisemobilize
Starting line Gallagher +30. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,960 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+263
08
Unincorporated Sonoma Countypersuade
Starting line McGuire +38. 2.0% split their ticket.
+262
09
Susanvillemobilize
Starting line Gallagher +51. 5.7% split their ticket. About 964 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+261
10
Unincorporated Plumas Countypersuade
Starting line Gallagher +21. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,326 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+254
11
Red Bluffmobilize
Starting line Gallagher +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 1,566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+233
12
Orovillemobilize
Starting line Gallagher +24. 3.1% split their ticket. About 1,762 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+223

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Unincorporated Butte County carries the most.

Unincorporated Butte County gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 1,125. It sits at Gallagher +31 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Unincorporated Tehama County is a turnout race.

Gallagher's side leads Unincorporated Tehama County by about 50 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 662 votes there.

Susanville splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Susanville has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Gallagher has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Gallagher had $333K in cash on hand to McGuire's $153K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Gallagher's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 981
Slope: 0.982
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 3.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 243

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Gallagher's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Gallagher, with McGuire, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,010 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 24,155 of them live where Gallagher is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.2 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 9.4 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 5.1 points.

Gallagher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGuire.
In Unincorporated Butte County and Unincorporated Tehama County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 7.0 points toward Gallagher's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (none is a head-to-head between the two November finalists), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

3,436 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 65,568 dials to 21,856 households, before the last ballot is cast.

22K

households on the target list

66K

dials across three attempts

3,436

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,580 at our published rates: 21,856 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

James Gallagher (R)

U.S. Representative since June 2026 and a Sutter County farmer, he served in the California State Assembly from 2014 to 2026, including as Assembly Republican Leader from 2022 to 2025, after serving on the Sutter County Board of Supervisors.

Cash on hand $332,899 and $1,488,906 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Mike McGuire (D)

State senator for California's 2nd Senate District since 2014, from Healdsburg, who served as Senate majority leader (2022 to 2024) and Senate president pro tempore (2024 to 2025).

Cash on hand $152,606 and $1,827,711 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McGuire +9.5. James Gallagher needs 25,384 net votes. Odds 9% today, 16% with the plan.

Questions

Can James Gallagher win California's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,482 net votes; the gap is 25,384. The rest would take a 7.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes James Gallagher needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated Butte County, Unincorporated Tehama County, Santa Rosa, Chico, Unincorporated Lassen County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James Gallagher need to persuade?

About 1,505 voters who lean Mike McGuire today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,010 persuadable voters leaning Mike McGuire.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.