Upset Brief · CA-13 · Kevin Lincoln (R) vs. Adam Gray (D), incumbent

Lincoln can win. The math closes using 34 percent of what history allows.

46%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
909
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Unincorporated Merced County
    Starting line Lincoln +26. 1.4% split their ticket. About 9,725 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +384
  2. 02
    Ceres
    Starting line Gray +1. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +124
  3. 03
    Lathrop
    Starting line Gray +15. 2.5% split their ticket.
    +80
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Madera County
    Starting line Lincoln +26. 0.6% split their ticket. About 895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +79
  5. 05
    Unincorporated San Joaquin County
    Starting line even. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +62
  6. 06
    Livingston
    Starting line Gray +16. 3.9% split their ticket.
    +47

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,230 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gray today.
    +415
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 18,295 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Lincoln's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +458
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Lincoln's way.
    +82
What has to be true
  1. Lincoln wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gray.
  2. In Unincorporated Merced County and Unincorporated Madera County, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 34 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    877 precincts, R² 0.969, 126 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -14,726 to 14,900 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Lincoln $837,885 cash on hand; Gray $2,072,111.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,321 households, 12,964 dials, about 679 live conversations: an estimated $2,465 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.