How Kevin Lincoln wins.
Gray starts 0.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Lincoln needs 909 net votes, and the math closes using 34 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Unincorporated Merced County, Ceres and Lathrop.
Lincoln can win. The math closes using 34 percent of what history allows.
64,252 votes.
That is half of the 128,502 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Lincoln stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
46% today. 51% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,230 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gray today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Lincoln needs to win 17 percent of the ones now leaning Gray.
Who. At least 18,295 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Lincoln's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Lincoln's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 955 net votes against a gap of 909. That is a win.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+384Unincorporated Merced CountymobilizeStarting line Lincoln +26. 1.4% split their ticket. About 9,725 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+124CerespersuadeStarting line Gray +1. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 03+80LathroppersuadeStarting line Gray +15. 2.5% split their ticket.
- 04+79Unincorporated Madera CountymobilizeStarting line Lincoln +26. 0.6% split their ticket. About 895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+62Unincorporated San Joaquin CountypersuadeStarting line even. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 06+47LivingstonpersuadeStarting line Gray +16. 3.9% split their ticket.
- 07+36NewmanpersuadeStarting line Lincoln +3. 2.6% split their ticket.
- 08+24Unincorporated Stanislaus CountyconsolidateStarting line Lincoln +17. 1.7% split their ticket.
- 09+23FirebaughpersuadeStarting line Gray +16. 4.3% split their ticket.
- 10+22Unincorporated Fresno CountymobilizeStarting line Lincoln +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+20MendotapersuadeStarting line Gray +24. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 12+16GustinepersuadeStarting line Lincoln +12. 2.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Unincorporated Merced County carries the most.
Unincorporated Merced County gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 384. It sits at Lincoln +26 on our starting line, and 1.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Unincorporated Madera County is a turnout race.
Lincoln's side leads Unincorporated Madera County by about 26 points on our starting line, and it cast about 895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 79 votes there.
Firebaugh splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Firebaugh has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Gray had $2.07 million in cash on hand to Lincoln's $838K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Lincoln's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 877
- Slope
- 1.036
- R²
- 0.969
- Residual SD
- 4.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 126
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Lincoln's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Lincoln, with Gray, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 415 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 18,295 of them live where Lincoln is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 0.4 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 2.6 points; Dahle carried the 2022 governor's race by 0.8 points.
- Lincoln wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gray.
- In Unincorporated Merced County and Unincorporated Madera County, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 34 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
679 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 12,964 dials to 4,321 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,465 at our published rates: 4,321 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Kevin Lincoln (R)
U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served on the Marine One presidential helicopter squadron, former security industry manager and former church executive pastor, and a third-generation Stocktonian who was elected mayor of Stockton in 2020. He holds degrees from the University of Phoenix, Grand Canyon University and Liberty University.
Cash on hand $837,885 and $2,237,084 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Adam Gray (D)
Merced native who served 10 years in the California Assembly (District 21, 2012 to 2022) before winning election to Congress in 2024, where he sits on the Agriculture and Natural Resources committees. He holds a bachelor's degree from UC Santa Barbara and has worked as a UC Merced lecturer and small business owner.
Cash on hand $2,072,111 and $4,191,397 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gray +0.7. Kevin Lincoln needs 909 net votes. Odds 46% today, 51% with the plan.
Questions
Can Kevin Lincoln win California's 13th Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Kevin Lincoln needs 909 net votes, and recent California results show about 2,828 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 34 percent of that.
Where are the votes Kevin Lincoln needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated Merced County, Ceres, Lathrop, Unincorporated Madera County, Unincorporated San Joaquin County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Kevin Lincoln need to persuade?
About 208 voters who lean Adam Gray today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 17 percent of the 1,230 persuadable voters leaning Adam Gray.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: California's 13th Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: California's 13th congressional district