A long shot on the math: it takes a 47.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   San Francisco

   Starting line Mullin +47. 2.7% split their ticket.
   +450
2. 02
   San Mateo

   Starting line Mullin +51. 1.7% split their ticket.
   +339
3. 03
   San Carlos

   Starting line Mullin +55. 3.0% split their ticket.
   +234
4. 04
   Redwood City

   Starting line Mullin +55. 1.5% split their ticket.
   +220
5. 05
   Hillsborough

   Starting line Mullin +25. 6.9% split their ticket.
   +187
6. 06
   Daly City

   Starting line Mullin +47. 1.3% split their ticket.
   +184

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,164 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mullin today.
  +2,164
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Hoelter's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +285

Plus a national shift of 47.6 points of margin (108,087 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Hoelter wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mullin.
2. It would take a national shift of about 47.6 points toward Hoelter's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  339 precincts, R² 0.764, 68 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,586 to -81,732 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Hoelter no FEC totals reported; Mullin $219,735.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,549 households, 10,646 dials, about 558 live conversations: an estimated $2,025 at published rates.