California · U.S. House · District 15 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Charles Hoelter.

Mullin starts 48.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,449 net votes toward Hoelter, a 1.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 47.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hoelter the one standing if one comes.

110,536

net votes between Hoelter and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

48.7 pts

Mullin lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 47.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find110,536

WhereSan Francisco, San Mateo, San Carlos

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Mullin +48.7. Charles Hoelter needs 110,536 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

113,576 votes.

That is half of the 227,150 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hoelter stands today, and what is missing:

56,708 Charles Hoelter baseline

167,245 Kevin Mullin baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hoelter wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Hoelter short by 107,946.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,164

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,164

Who. 2,164 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mullin today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hoelter needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Mullin.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Hoelter's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

285

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 815

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Hoelter's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 2,449 net votes against a gap of 110,536. Still 108,087 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 47.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
San Franciscopersuade
Starting line Mullin +47. 2.7% split their ticket.
+450
02
San Mateopersuade
Starting line Mullin +51. 1.7% split their ticket.
+339
03
San Carlospersuade
Starting line Mullin +55. 3.0% split their ticket.
+234
04
Redwood Citypersuade
Starting line Mullin +55. 1.5% split their ticket.
+220
05
Hillsboroughpersuade
Starting line Mullin +25. 6.9% split their ticket.
+187
06
Daly Citypersuade
Starting line Mullin +47. 1.3% split their ticket.
+184
07
Foster Citypersuade
Starting line Mullin +45. 2.5% split their ticket.
+153
08
Burlingamepersuade
Starting line Mullin +48. 2.3% split their ticket.
+148
09
Belmontpersuade
Starting line Mullin +54. 2.2% split their ticket.
+131
10
South San Franciscopersuade
Starting line Mullin +46. 0.8% split their ticket.
+95
11
Unincorporated San Mateo Countypersuade
Starting line Mullin +52. 1.4% split their ticket.
+88
12
San Brunopersuade
Starting line Mullin +41. 0.9% split their ticket.
+78

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

San Francisco carries the most.

San Francisco gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 450. It sits at Mullin +47 on our starting line, and 2.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Hillsborough splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Hillsborough has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 2,449 net votes. The gap is 110,536. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.1 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hoelter's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 339
Slope: 0.806
R²: 0.764
Residual SD: 4.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 68

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hoelter's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hoelter, with Mullin, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,164 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Hoelter is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 47.9 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 46.7 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 51.0 points.

Hoelter wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mullin.
The national environment moves about 47.6 points toward Hoelter's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

558 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 10,646 dials to 3,549 households, before the last ballot is cast.

3,549

households on the target list

11K

dials across three attempts

558

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,025 at our published rates: 3,549 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Charles Hoelter (R)

Retired UPS training supervisor who has lived in San Mateo County for more than three decades, and a husband of 31 years and father of three.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Kevin Mullin (D)

U.S. Representative since 2023 who served in the California Assembly from 2012 to 2022, including as Speaker pro Tempore from 2014 to 2022, after serving on the South San Francisco City Council and as mayor. A Daly City native, he holds a BA from the University of San Francisco and an MPA from San Francisco State University.

Cash on hand $219,735 and $819,662 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Mullin +48.7. Charles Hoelter needs 110,536 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Charles Hoelter win California's 15th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,449 net votes; the gap is 110,536. The rest would take a 47.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Charles Hoelter needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: San Francisco, San Mateo, San Carlos, Redwood City, Hillsborough. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Charles Hoelter need to persuade?

About 1,082 voters who lean Kevin Mullin today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,164 persuadable voters leaning Kevin Mullin.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.