A long shot on the math: it takes a 44.4-point national wave.

1. 01
   Palo Alto

   Starting line Liccardo +62. 2.9% split their ticket.
   +430
2. 02
   San Jose

   Starting line Liccardo +35. 0.7% split their ticket.
   +413
3. 03
   Saratoga

   Starting line Liccardo +34. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +371
4. 04
   Los Altos

   Starting line Liccardo +52. 4.1% split their ticket.
   +330
5. 05
   Los Gatos

   Starting line Liccardo +39. 3.9% split their ticket.
   +308
6. 06
   Mountain View

   Starting line Liccardo +60. 1.8% split their ticket.
   +247

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 88% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,014 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Liccardo today.
  +3,014
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Soulé's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +357

Plus a national shift of 44.4 points of margin (117,664 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Soulé wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Liccardo.
2. It would take a national shift of about 44.4 points toward Soulé's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  469 precincts, R² 0.900, 95 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -148,061 to -87,119 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Soulé $400 cash on hand; Liccardo $2,152,957.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  4,862 households, 14,587 dials, about 764 live conversations: an estimated $2,774 at published rates.