What it would take for Peter Sundin Soulé.
Liccardo starts 45.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,371 net votes toward Soulé, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 44.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Soulé the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 44.4-point national wave.
132,408 votes.
That is half of the 264,815 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Soulé stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,014 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Liccardo today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Soulé needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Liccardo.
Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Soulé's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Soulé's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 3,371 net votes against a gap of 121,035. Still 117,664 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 44.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 88% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+430Palo AltopersuadeStarting line Liccardo +62. 2.9% split their ticket.
- 02+413San JosepersuadeStarting line Liccardo +35. 0.7% split their ticket.
- 03+371SaratogapersuadeStarting line Liccardo +34. 4.7% split their ticket.
- 04+330Los AltospersuadeStarting line Liccardo +52. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 05+308Los GatospersuadeStarting line Liccardo +39. 3.9% split their ticket.
- 06+247Mountain ViewpersuadeStarting line Liccardo +60. 1.8% split their ticket.
- 07+181Menlo ParkpersuadeStarting line Liccardo +61. 3.4% split their ticket.
- 08+169Unincorporated San Mateo CountypersuadeStarting line Liccardo +55. 2.3% split their ticket.
- 09+159CampbellpersuadeStarting line Liccardo +43. 1.8% split their ticket.
- 10+126Unincorporated Santa Clara CountypersuadeStarting line Liccardo +50. 2.2% split their ticket.
- 11+122AthertonpersuadeStarting line Liccardo +31. 7.5% split their ticket.
- 12+119Los Altos HillspersuadeStarting line Liccardo +37. 5.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Palo Alto carries the most.
Palo Alto gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 430. It sits at Liccardo +62 on our starting line, and 2.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Atherton splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Atherton has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Liccardo had $2.15 million in cash on hand to Soulé's $400. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 3,371 net votes. The gap is 121,035. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Soulé's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 469
- Slope
- 0.824
- R²
- 0.900
- Residual SD
- 4.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 95
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Soulé's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Soulé, with Liccardo, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,014 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Soulé is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 48.1 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 44.0 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 44.9 points.
- Soulé wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Liccardo.
- The national environment moves about 44.4 points toward Soulé's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
764 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 14,587 dials to 4,862 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,774 at our published rates: 4,862 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Peter Sundin Soulé (R)
Investor running on public safety, cutting regulation and wasteful spending to strengthen California's economy, and building for the next generation.
Cash on hand $400 and $400 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Sam Liccardo (D)
U.S. Representative since 2025 and former mayor of San Jose (2015 to 2023), who earlier served on the San Jose City Council and worked as a criminal prosecutor, and who has taught housing and local government policy at Stanford and San Jose State. Raised in Saratoga, he holds a BA from Georgetown and a JD and MPP from Harvard.
Cash on hand $2,152,957 and $3,489,298 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Liccardo +45.7. Peter Sundin Soulé needs 121,035 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Peter Sundin Soulé win California's 16th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 3,371 net votes; the gap is 121,035. The rest would take a 44.4-point national shift.
Where are the votes Peter Sundin Soulé needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Palo Alto, San Jose, Saratoga, Los Altos, Los Gatos. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Peter Sundin Soulé need to persuade?
About 1,507 voters who lean Sam Liccardo today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,014 persuadable voters leaning Sam Liccardo.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: California's 16th Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: California's 16th congressional district