A long shot on the math: it takes a 35.0-point national wave.

1. 01
   Bakersfield

   Starting line Fong +30. 1.3% split their ticket.
   +436
2. 02
   Unincorporated Kern County

   Starting line Fong +47. 1.4% split their ticket.
   +408
3. 03
   Visalia

   Starting line Fong +28. 1.4% split their ticket.
   +224
4. 04
   Ridgecrest

   Starting line Fong +30. 2.6% split their ticket.
   +125
5. 05
   Hanford

   Starting line Fong +30. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +98
6. 06
   Unincorporated Tulare County

   Starting line Fong +43. 1.4% split their ticket.
   +94

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,652 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fong today.
  +1,652
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Van Scotter's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Van Scotter's way.
  +229

Plus a national shift of 35 points of margin (77,792 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Van Scotter wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fong.
2. The national environment moves about 35.0 points toward Van Scotter's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  757 precincts, R² 0.975, 123 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -103,599 to -52,130 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Van Scotter no FEC totals reported; Fong $453,750.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  2,732 households, 8,195 dials, about 429 live conversations: an estimated $1,559 at published rates.