What it would have taken for Sandra Van Scotter.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Fong starts 35.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,881 net votes toward Van Scotter, a 0.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 35.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Van Scotter the one standing if one comes.
Vince Fong won.
Sandra Van Scotter ran 10.6 points ahead of our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 57.1% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 35.0-point national wave.
111,213 votes.
That is half of the 222,425 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Van Scotter stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,652 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fong today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Van Scotter needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fong.
Who. Few cities and unincorporated areas give Van Scotter's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 1,881 net votes against a gap of 79,673. Still 77,792 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 35 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+436BakersfieldpersuadeStarting line Fong +30. 1.3% split their ticket.
- 02+408Unincorporated Kern CountypersuadeStarting line Fong +47. 1.4% split their ticket.
- 03+224VisaliapersuadeStarting line Fong +28. 1.4% split their ticket.
- 04+125RidgecrestpersuadeStarting line Fong +30. 2.6% split their ticket.
- 05+98HanfordpersuadeStarting line Fong +30. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 06+94Unincorporated Tulare CountypersuadeStarting line Fong +43. 1.4% split their ticket.
- 07+89Unincorporated Fresno CountypersuadeStarting line Fong +46. 1.4% split their ticket.
- 08+87LemoorepersuadeStarting line Fong +26. 2.9% split their ticket.
- 09+83TularepersuadeStarting line Fong +36. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 10+52PortervillepersuadeStarting line Fong +19. 1.4% split their ticket.
- 11+38ClovispersuadeStarting line Fong +24. 0.9% split their ticket.
- 12+35Unincorporated Kings CountypersuadeStarting line Fong +51. 1.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Bakersfield carries the most.
Bakersfield gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 436. It sits at Fong +30 on our starting line, and 1.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Lemoore splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Lemoore has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,881 net votes. The gap is 79,673. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 0.8 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Van Scotter's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 757
- Slope
- 1.004
- R²
- 0.975
- Residual SD
- 2.6 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 123
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Van Scotter's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Van Scotter, with Fong, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,652 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Van Scotter is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box or vote center in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 32.2 points; Garvey carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 34.8 points; Dahle carried the 2022 governor's race by 40.5 points.
- Van Scotter wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fong.
- It would take a national shift of about 35.0 points toward Van Scotter's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
429 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 8,195 dials to 2,732 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,559 at our published rates: 2,732 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Sandra Van Scotter (D)
Disability community advocate from Ridgecrest in Kern County, per her ballot designation, who spent about 20 years as a respiratory therapist and now works directly with adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
Vince Fong (R)
U.S. Representative since 2024 who previously served in the California Assembly from 2016 to 2024, representing the 34th and then the 32nd Assembly District, and served as district director to Congressman Kevin McCarthy. Holds a BA from UCLA and an MPA from Princeton.
Cash on hand $453,750 and $1,849,356 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Sandra Van Scotter lost
Unofficial result: Sandra Van Scotter 37.4%, Vince Fong 62.6%, a margin of 25.2 points. Our starting line had Fong +35.8; Van Scotter ran ahead of that line by 10.6 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fong +35.8. Sandra Van Scotter needs 79,673 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won CA-20 in 2026?
Vince Fong won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Sandra Van Scotter 37.4%, Vince Fong 62.6%, a margin of 25.2 points. Our starting line had Fong +35.8; Van Scotter ran ahead of that line by 10.6 points.
Can Sandra Van Scotter win California's 20th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 1,881 net votes against a gap of 79,673; the rest would take a 35.0-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Sandra Van Scotter needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bakersfield, Unincorporated Kern County, Visalia, Ridgecrest, Hanford. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Sandra Van Scotter need to persuade?
About 826 voters who lean Vince Fong today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,652 persuadable voters leaning Vince Fong.
When are ballots mailed in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)