Upset Brief · CA-21 · Kyle Kirkland (R) vs. Jim Costa (D), incumbent

Kirkland gets within 4,878 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.7-point national shift finishes it.

24%
odds today
30%
odds with the plan
6,694
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Fresno
    Starting line Costa +19. 1.4% split their ticket.
    +530
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Tulare County
    Starting line Kirkland +29. 1.2% split their ticket. About 2,858 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +338
  3. 03
    Kingsburg
    Starting line Kirkland +44. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,510 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +292
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Fresno County
    Starting line Kirkland +7. 1.3% split their ticket.
    +171
  5. 05
    Visalia
    Starting line Kirkland +6. 1.9% split their ticket.
    +88
  6. 06
    Sanger
    Starting line Costa +8. 2.6% split their ticket.
    +74

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 97% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,075 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Costa today.
    +1,075
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,368 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Kirkland's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +509
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Kirkland's way.
    +231

Plus a national shift of 3.7 points of margin (4,878 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kirkland wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Costa.
  2. In Unincorporated Tulare County and Kingsburg, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 3.7 points toward Kirkland's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    411 precincts, R² 0.982, 67 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -19,875 to 10,402 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kirkland $17,934 cash on hand; Costa $938,779.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,953 households, 14,860 dials, about 779 live conversations: an estimated $2,826 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.