How Kyle Kirkland wins.
Costa starts 5.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Kirkland within 4,878 votes; a 3.7-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Fresno, Unincorporated Tulare County and Kingsburg.
Kirkland gets within 4,878 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.7-point national shift finishes it.
65,752 votes.
That is half of the 131,502 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kirkland stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
24% today. 30% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,075 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Costa today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kirkland needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Costa.
Who. At least 4,368 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Kirkland's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Kirkland's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 1,815 net votes against a gap of 6,694. Still 4,879 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 3.7 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 97% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+530FresnopersuadeStarting line Costa +19. 1.4% split their ticket.
- 02+338Unincorporated Tulare CountymobilizeStarting line Kirkland +29. 1.2% split their ticket. About 2,858 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+292KingsburgmobilizeStarting line Kirkland +44. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,510 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+171Unincorporated Fresno CountypersuadeStarting line Kirkland +7. 1.3% split their ticket.
- 05+88VisaliapersuadeStarting line Kirkland +6. 1.9% split their ticket.
- 06+74SangerpersuadeStarting line Costa +8. 2.6% split their ticket.
- 07+53ClovispersuadeStarting line Kirkland +9. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 08+50SelmapersuadeStarting line Costa +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
- 09+44ParlierpersuadeStarting line Costa +36. 5.1% split their ticket.
- 10+44ReedleypersuadeStarting line Kirkland +9. 1.5% split their ticket.
- 11+39DinubapersuadeStarting line Kirkland +3. 1.8% split their ticket.
- 12+30FowlerpersuadeStarting line Kirkland +6. 2.7% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Fresno carries the most.
Fresno gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 530. It sits at Costa +19 on our starting line, and 1.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Unincorporated Tulare County is a turnout race.
Kirkland's side leads Unincorporated Tulare County by about 29 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,858 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 284 votes there.
Parlier splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Parlier has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Costa had $939K in cash on hand to Kirkland's $18K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kirkland's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 411
- Slope
- 1.028
- R²
- 0.982
- Residual SD
- 3.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 67
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kirkland's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kirkland, with Costa, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,075 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,368 of them live where Kirkland is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 6.0 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 5.2 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 3.4 points.
- Kirkland wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Costa.
- In Unincorporated Tulare County and Kingsburg, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 3.7 points toward Kirkland's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
779 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 14,860 dials to 4,953 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,826 at our published rates: 4,953 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Kyle Kirkland (R)
Fresno businessman who owns Club One Casino, is president of the California Gaming Association, formerly chaired Steinway Musical Instruments, and chairs the Fresno Chaffee Zoo board. Harvard economics graduate with a Stanford MBA who founded the Kirkland Foundation for animal rescue.
Cash on hand $17,934 and $338,971 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Jim Costa (D)
Fresno-area farmer and U.S. Representative since 2005 who earlier served in the California State Assembly (1978 to 1994) and State Senate (1994 to 2002) and served as a Blue Dog Coalition co-chair. Holds a BA from Fresno State.
Cash on hand $938,779 and $1,338,630 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Costa +5.1. Kyle Kirkland needs 6,694 net votes. Odds 24% today, 30% with the plan.
Questions
Can Kyle Kirkland win California's 21st Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,815 net votes; the gap is 6,694. The rest would take a 3.7-point national shift.
Where are the votes Kyle Kirkland needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fresno, Unincorporated Tulare County, Kingsburg, Unincorporated Fresno County, Visalia. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Kyle Kirkland need to persuade?
About 538 voters who lean Jim Costa today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,075 persuadable voters leaning Jim Costa.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)