Upset Brief · CA-22 · David G. Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)

Valadao can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
61%
odds with the plan
2,091
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Bakersfield
    Starting line Villegas +4. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +453
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Fresno County
    Starting line Valadao +32. 1.8% split their ticket. About 3,137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +415
  3. 03
    Unincorporated Tulare County
    Starting line Valadao +18. 1.7% split their ticket. About 3,382 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +263
  4. 04
    Shafter
    Starting line Valadao +20. 2.9% split their ticket. About 2,843 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +247
  5. 05
    Unincorporated Kern County
    Starting line Villegas +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +190
  6. 06
    Fresno
    Starting line Villegas +5. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +98

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 93% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Villegas today.
    +1,102
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 10,252 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Valadao's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +791
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Valadao's way.
    +193
What has to be true
  1. Valadao wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Villegas.
  2. In Unincorporated Fresno County and Unincorporated Tulare County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    565 precincts, R² 0.954, 92 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -9,989 to 14,161 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Valadao $3,365,587 cash on hand; Villegas $571,792.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,975 households, 26,924 dials, about 1,411 live conversations: an estimated $4,228 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,228 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.