How David G. Valadao wins.
A true toss-up between Valadao and Villegas: no independent public poll exists, and the raters lean Villegas's way while recent official results here lean Valadao's side. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 2,091 net votes, most of them in Bakersfield, Unincorporated Fresno County and Unincorporated Tulare County.
Valadao can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.
52,277 votes.
That is half of the 104,552 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Valadao stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a tie (no independent public poll exists, and the raters lean Villegas's way while recent official results here lean Valadao's side), applied to each place's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
50% today. 61% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Villegas today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Valadao needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Villegas.
Who. At least 10,252 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Valadao's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Valadao's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 2,086 net votes against a gap of 2,091. Still 5 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 93% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+453BakersfieldpersuadeStarting line Villegas +4. 2.3% split their ticket.
- 02+415Unincorporated Fresno CountymobilizeStarting line Valadao +32. 1.8% split their ticket. About 3,137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+263Unincorporated Tulare CountymobilizeStarting line Valadao +18. 1.7% split their ticket. About 3,382 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+247ShaftermobilizeStarting line Valadao +20. 2.9% split their ticket. About 2,843 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+190Unincorporated Kern CountypersuadeStarting line Villegas +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
- 06+98FresnopersuadeStarting line Villegas +5. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 07+69DelanopersuadeStarting line Villegas +18. 2.1% split their ticket.
- 08+60Unincorporated Kings CountymobilizeStarting line Valadao +17. 1.3% split their ticket. About 820 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+50TularepersuadeStarting line even. 2.3% split their ticket.
- 10+37KermanpersuadeStarting line Valadao +1. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 11+30LindsaypersuadeStarting line Villegas +11. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 12+30PortervillepersuadeStarting line Valadao +6. 1.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Bakersfield carries the most.
Bakersfield gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 453. It sits at Villegas +4 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Unincorporated Fresno County is a turnout race.
Valadao's side leads Unincorporated Fresno County by about 32 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 345 votes there.
Lindsay splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Lindsay has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Valadao has the cash edge.
As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Valadao had $3.37 million in cash on hand to Villegas's $572K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Valadao's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 565
- Slope
- 1.011
- R²
- 0.954
- Residual SD
- 4.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 92
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Valadao's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Valadao, with Villegas, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,102 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 10,252 of them live where Valadao is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 1.8 points; Garvey carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 1.1 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 0.5 points.
- Valadao wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Villegas.
- In Unincorporated Fresno County and Unincorporated Tulare County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
- Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
1,411 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 26,924 dials to 8,975 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,228 at our published rates: 8,975 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
David G. Valadao (R)
Hanford dairy farmer who has represented the Central Valley in Congress since 2013 (2013 to 2019 and since 2021) and earlier served in the California State Assembly (2010 to 2012). Attended College of the Sequoias.
Cash on hand $3,365,587 and $4,927,602 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Randy Villegas (D)
Kern County native, college professor and Visalia school board trustee who was the first in his family to earn a Ph.D.
Cash on hand $571,792 and $2,645,560 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Villegas +4.3. David G. Valadao needs 4,546 net votes. Odds 19% today, 51% with the plan.
Questions
Can David G. Valadao win California's 22nd Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. David G. Valadao needs 2,091 net votes, and recent California results show about 2,086 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 100 percent of that.
Where are the votes David G. Valadao needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bakersfield, Unincorporated Fresno County, Unincorporated Tulare County, Shafter, Unincorporated Kern County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does David G. Valadao need to persuade?
About 551 voters who lean Randy Villegas today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,102 persuadable voters leaning Randy Villegas.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Tulchin Research (2026-06-15 to 2026-06-21)