Upset Brief · CA-23 · Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) vs. Jay Obernolte (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
39,030
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Unincorporated San Bernardino County
    Starting line Obernolte +30. 1.3% split their ticket.
    +378
  2. 02
    Adelanto
    Starting line Hodge +14. 1.3% split their ticket. About 4,409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +236
  3. 03
    Yucaipa
    Starting line Obernolte +38. 1.7% split their ticket.
    +174
  4. 04
    Redlands
    Starting line Obernolte +11. 3.3% split their ticket.
    +107
  5. 05
    Apple Valley
    Starting line Obernolte +31. 0.8% split their ticket.
    +106
  6. 06
    Victorville
    Starting line Hodge +4.
    +71

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 93% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    967 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Obernolte today.
    +967
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,409 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Hodge's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +205
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Hodge's way.
    +254

Plus a national shift of 21.3 points of margin (37,604 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hodge wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Obernolte.
  2. In Adelanto, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 21.3 points toward Hodge's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,009 precincts, R² 0.972, 177 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -57,728 to -17,136 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Hodge $10,237 cash on hand; Obernolte $1,644,222.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,878 households, 14,634 dials, about 767 live conversations: an estimated $2,783 at published rates.
For the campaign

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.