California · U.S. House · District 23 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Tessa Lynn Hodge.

Q: Can Tessa Lynn Hodge win California's 23rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,426 net votes; the gap is 39,030. The rest would take a 21.3-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Tessa Lynn Hodge needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated San Bernardino County, Adelanto, Yucaipa, Redlands, Apple Valley. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Tessa Lynn Hodge need to persuade?

About 484 voters who lean Jay Obernolte today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 967 persuadable voters leaning Jay Obernolte.

Q: When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Obernolte starts 22.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,426 net votes toward Hodge, a 0.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 21.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hodge the one standing if one comes.

39,030

net votes between Hodge and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

22.2 pts

Obernolte lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find39,030

WhereUnincorporated San Bernardino County, Adelanto, Yucaipa

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Obernolte +22.2. Tessa Lynn Hodge needs 39,030 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

88,073 votes.

That is half of the 176,144 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hodge stands today, and what is missing:

67,632 Tessa Lynn Hodge baseline

106,662 Jay Obernolte baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hodge wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Hodge short by 37,520.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

967

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 967

Who. 967 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Obernolte today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hodge needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Obernolte.

Mobilize

205

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,409

Who. At least 4,409 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Hodge's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

254

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 726

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Hodge's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,426 net votes against a gap of 39,030. Still 37,604 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 21.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 93% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Unincorporated San Bernardino Countypersuade
Starting line Obernolte +30. 1.3% split their ticket.
+378
02
Adelantomobilize
Starting line Hodge +14. 1.3% split their ticket. About 4,409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+236
03
Yucaipapersuade
Starting line Obernolte +38. 1.7% split their ticket.
+174
04
Redlandspersuade
Starting line Obernolte +11. 3.3% split their ticket.
+107
05
Apple Valleypersuade
Starting line Obernolte +31. 0.8% split their ticket.
+106
06
Victorvilleconsolidate
Starting line Hodge +4.
+71
07
Hesperiapersuade
Starting line Obernolte +25.
+53
08
Loma Lindapersuade
Starting line Hodge +9. 1.1% split their ticket.
+48
09
Unincorporated Riverside Countypersuade
Starting line Obernolte +36. 1.3% split their ticket.
+47
10
Yucca Valleypersuade
Starting line Obernolte +21. 1.1% split their ticket.
+44
11
Big Bear Lakepersuade
Starting line Obernolte +22. 3.6% split their ticket.
+40
12
California Citypersuade
Starting line Obernolte +10. 1.2% split their ticket.
+23

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Unincorporated San Bernardino County carries the most.

Unincorporated San Bernardino County gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 378. It sits at Obernolte +30 on our starting line, and 1.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Adelanto is a turnout race.

Hodge's side leads Adelanto by about 14 points on our starting line, and it cast about 4,409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 205 votes there.

Big Bear Lake splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Big Bear Lake has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Obernolte had $1.64 million in cash on hand to Hodge's $10K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hodge's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 1,009
Slope: 1.001
R²: 0.972
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 177

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hodge's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hodge, with Obernolte, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 967 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,409 of them live where Hodge is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 19.4 points; Garvey carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 21.0 points; Dahle carried the 2022 governor's race by 24.0 points.

Hodge wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Obernolte.
In Adelanto, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 21.3 points toward Hodge's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

767 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 14,634 dials to 4,878 households, before the last ballot is cast.

4,878

households on the target list

15K

dials across three attempts

767

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,783 at our published rates: 4,878 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)

Clinical social worker and mental health provider who grew up in the district.

Cash on hand $10,237 and $79,499 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jay Obernolte (R)

U.S. Representative since 2021, former Assemblymember and mayor of Big Bear Lake, and founder of video game developer FarSight Studios. Holds degrees from Caltech (BS), UCLA (MS in artificial intelligence) and California Baptist University (DPA).

Cash on hand $1,644,222 and $1,455,868 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Obernolte +22.2. Tessa Lynn Hodge needs 39,030 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Tessa Lynn Hodge win California's 23rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,426 net votes; the gap is 39,030. The rest would take a 21.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Tessa Lynn Hodge needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated San Bernardino County, Adelanto, Yucaipa, Redlands, Apple Valley. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Tessa Lynn Hodge need to persuade?

About 484 voters who lean Jay Obernolte today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 967 persuadable voters leaning Jay Obernolte.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.