A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.1-point national wave.

1. 01
   Unincorporated Santa Barbara County

   Starting line Carbajal +12. 2.9% split their ticket.
   +871
2. 02
   San Buenaventura (Ventura)

   Starting line Carbajal +22. 2.0% split their ticket.
   +502
3. 03
   Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County

   Starting line Carbajal +6. 2.4% split their ticket.
   +486
4. 04
   Santa Barbara

   Starting line Carbajal +53. 2.2% split their ticket.
   +401
5. 05
   San Luis Obispo

   Starting line Carbajal +46. 2.0% split their ticket.
   +209
6. 06
   Santa Maria

   Starting line even. 1.5% split their ticket.
   +160

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 92% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,131 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carbajal today.
  +3,131
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Smith's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Smith's way.
  +456

Plus a national shift of 20.1 points of margin (54,036 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carbajal.
2. The national environment moves about 20.1 points toward Smith's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  681 precincts, R² 0.982, 210 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -84,256 to -22,902 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Smith $47,128 cash on hand; Carbajal $3,383,604.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  5,220 households, 15,660 dials, about 821 live conversations: an estimated $2,719 at published rates.