California · U.S. House · District 24 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Bob Smith.

Q: Can Bob Smith win California's 24th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 3,587 net votes; the gap is 57,623. The rest would take a 20.1-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Bob Smith needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated Santa Barbara County, San Buenaventura (Ventura), Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Bob Smith need to persuade?

About 1,566 voters who lean Salud Carbajal today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,131 persuadable voters leaning Salud Carbajal.

Q: When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Carbajal starts 21.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,587 net votes toward Smith, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Smith the one standing if one comes.

57,623

net votes between Smith and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

21.4 pts

Carbajal lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.1-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find57,623

WhereUnincorporated Santa Barbara County, San Buenaventura (Ventura), Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Carbajal +21.4. Bob Smith needs 57,623 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

134,296 votes.

That is half of the 268,591 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Smith stands today, and what is missing:

103,794 Bob Smith baseline

161,417 Salud Carbajal baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Smith wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Smith short by 53,677.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,131

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,131

Who. 3,131 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carbajal today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Smith needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Carbajal.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Smith's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

456

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,303

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Smith's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 3,587 net votes against a gap of 57,623. Still 54,036 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 92% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Unincorporated Santa Barbara Countypersuade
Starting line Carbajal +12. 2.9% split their ticket.
+871
02
San Buenaventura (Ventura)persuade
Starting line Carbajal +22. 2.0% split their ticket.
+502
03
Unincorporated San Luis Obispo Countypersuade
Starting line Carbajal +6. 2.4% split their ticket.
+486
04
Santa Barbarapersuade
Starting line Carbajal +53. 2.2% split their ticket.
+401
05
San Luis Obispopersuade
Starting line Carbajal +46. 2.0% split their ticket.
+209
06
Santa Mariapersuade
Starting line even. 1.5% split their ticket.
+160
07
Goletapersuade
Starting line Carbajal +39. 2.1% split their ticket.
+152
08
Arroyo Grandepersuade
Starting line Carbajal +5. 2.9% split their ticket.
+150
09
Lompocpersuade
Starting line Carbajal +4. 2.0% split their ticket.
+111
10
Pismo Beachpersuade
Starting line Carbajal +2. 3.4% split their ticket.
+86
11
Morro Baypersuade
Starting line Carbajal +23. 2.5% split their ticket.
+85
12
Carpinteriapersuade
Starting line Carbajal +38. 2.6% split their ticket.
+77

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Unincorporated Santa Barbara County carries the most.

Unincorporated Santa Barbara County gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 871. It sits at Carbajal +12 on our starting line, and 2.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Pismo Beach splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Pismo Beach has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Carbajal had $3.38 million in cash on hand to Smith's $47K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 3,587 net votes. The gap is 57,623. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Smith's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 681
Slope: 0.979
R²: 0.982
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 210

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Smith's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Smith, with Carbajal, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,131 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Smith is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 24.9 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 20.6 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 17.5 points.

Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carbajal.
The national environment moves about 20.1 points toward Smith's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

821 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 15,660 dials to 5,220 households, before the last ballot is cast.

5,220

households on the target list

16K

dials across three attempts

821

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,719 at our published rates: 5,220 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Bob Smith (R)

Carpinteria defense systems engineer and retired U.S. Navy commander who served more than 26 years, running to reduce partisan division and get results for the Central Coast; he re-registered as No Party Preference in September 2026, though the ballot still lists him as Republican. He appears as a Republican on the November ballot; he re-registered No Party Preference on September 19, 2026.

Cash on hand $47,128 and $203,264 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Salud Carbajal (D)

U.S. Representative since 2017 whose district covers Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Santa Maria. Holds a BA from UC Santa Barbara and an MA from Fielding Graduate University.

Cash on hand $3,383,604 and $1,650,355 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Carbajal +21.4. Bob Smith needs 57,623 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Bob Smith win California's 24th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 3,587 net votes; the gap is 57,623. The rest would take a 20.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Bob Smith needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated Santa Barbara County, San Buenaventura (Ventura), Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Bob Smith need to persuade?

About 1,566 voters who lean Salud Carbajal today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,131 persuadable voters leaning Salud Carbajal.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.