Upset Brief · CA-25 · Joe Males (R) vs. Raul Ruiz (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.3-point national wave.

18%
odds today
23%
odds with the plan
11,221
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Palm Desert
    Starting line Ruiz +6. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +274
  2. 02
    La Quinta
    Starting line Males +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
    +218
  3. 03
    Imperial
    Starting line Males +14. 1.4% split their ticket. About 4,104 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +217
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Imperial County
    Starting line Males +13. 1.0% split their ticket. About 3,460 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +180
  5. 05
    Unincorporated Riverside County
    Starting line even. 1.1% split their ticket.
    +158
  6. 06
    Beaumont
    Starting line Males +10. 1.3% split their ticket.
    +126

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 90% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,273 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ruiz today.
    +1,273
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,564 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Males's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +326
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Males's way.
    +258

Plus a national shift of 5.3 points of margin (9,364 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Males wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ruiz.
  2. In Imperial and Unincorporated Imperial County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.3 points toward Males's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    568 precincts, R² 0.966, 102 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,040 to 10,992 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Males $14,847 cash on hand; Ruiz $2,556,494.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    7,485 households, 22,455 dials, about 1,177 live conversations: an estimated $3,898 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,898 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.