California · U.S. House · District 25 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Joe Males.

Ruiz starts 6.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,857 net votes toward Males, a 1.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 5.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Males the one standing if one comes.

11,221

net votes between Males and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

6.3 pts

Ruiz lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.3-point national wave.

Odds today18%

Odds with the plan23%

Net votes to find11,221

WherePalm Desert, La Quinta, Imperial

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Ruiz +6.3. Joe Males needs 11,221 net votes. Odds 18% today, 23% with the plan.

The number

89,101 votes.

That is half of the 178,201 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Males stands today, and what is missing:

82,707 Joe Males baseline

93,928 Raul Ruiz baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

18% today. 23% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Males wins in

23%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

18%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Males short by 9,451.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,273

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,273

Who. 1,273 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ruiz today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Males needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Ruiz.

Mobilize

326

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,564

Who. At least 7,564 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Males's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

258

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 738

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Males's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,857 net votes against a gap of 11,221. Still 9,364 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 5.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 90% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Palm Desertpersuade
Starting line Ruiz +6. 2.4% split their ticket.
+274
02
La Quintapersuade
Starting line Males +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
+218
03
Imperialmobilize
Starting line Males +14. 1.4% split their ticket. About 4,104 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+217
04
Unincorporated Imperial Countymobilize
Starting line Males +13. 1.0% split their ticket. About 3,460 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+180
05
Unincorporated Riverside Countypersuade
Starting line even. 1.1% split their ticket.
+158
06
Beaumontpersuade
Starting line Males +10. 1.3% split their ticket.
+126
07
Rancho Miragepersuade
Starting line Ruiz +23. 2.3% split their ticket.
+122
08
Indiopersuade
Starting line Ruiz +9. 0.8% split their ticket.
+110
09
Calexicopersuade
Starting line Ruiz +31. 2.3% split their ticket.
+76
10
Banningpersuade
Starting line Males +6. 1.4% split their ticket.
+76
11
Cathedral Citypersuade
Starting line Ruiz +38. 0.8% split their ticket.
+66
12
El Centropersuade
Starting line Ruiz +8. 0.9% split their ticket.
+51

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Palm Desert carries the most.

Palm Desert gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 274. It sits at Ruiz +6 on our starting line, and 2.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Imperial is a turnout race.

Males's side leads Imperial by about 14 points on our starting line, and it cast about 4,104 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 182 votes there.

La Quinta splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, La Quinta has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Ruiz had $2.56 million in cash on hand to Males's $15K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Males's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 568
Slope: 0.990
R²: 0.966
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 102

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Males's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Males, with Ruiz, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,273 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,564 of them live where Males is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 5.8 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 3.9 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 7.5 points.

Males wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ruiz.
In Imperial and Unincorporated Imperial County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 5.3 points toward Males's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,177 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 22,455 dials to 7,485 households, before the last ballot is cast.

7,485

households on the target list

22K

dials across three attempts

1,177

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,898 at our published rates: 7,485 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Joe Males (R)

Hemet city councilmember serving as mayor pro tem.

Cash on hand $14,847 and $936,496 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Raul Ruiz (D)

Emergency physician raised in Coachella who has served in Congress since 2013 and earlier was a senior associate dean at the UC Riverside School of Medicine. Earned a BS from UCLA and three graduate degrees from Harvard in medicine, public policy and public health.

Cash on hand $2,556,494 and $2,093,907 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Ruiz +6.3. Joe Males needs 11,221 net votes. Odds 18% today, 23% with the plan.

Questions

Can Joe Males win California's 25th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,857 net votes; the gap is 11,221. The rest would take a 5.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Joe Males needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Palm Desert, La Quinta, Imperial, Unincorporated Imperial County, Unincorporated Riverside County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Joe Males need to persuade?

About 636 voters who lean Raul Ruiz today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,273 persuadable voters leaning Raul Ruiz.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.