A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.1-point national wave.

1. 01
   Santa Clarita

   Starting line Gibbs +1. 1.8% split their ticket.
   +830
2. 02
   Los Angeles

   Starting line Whitesides +25.
   +156
3. 03
   Lancaster

   Starting line Whitesides +8. 0.6% split their ticket.
   +141
4. 04
   Unincorporated Los Angeles County

   Starting line Gibbs +4. 1.2% split their ticket.
   +131
5. 05
   Palmdale

   Starting line Whitesides +13.
   +121

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,009 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Whitesides today.
  +1,009
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Gibbs's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gibbs's way.
  +371

Plus a national shift of 7.1 points of margin (13,489 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Gibbs wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Whitesides.
2. The national environment moves about 7.1 points toward Gibbs's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  283 precincts, R² 0.975, 94 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -35,296 to 8,789 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Gibbs $201,877 cash on hand; Whitesides $2,554,917.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  2,123 households, 6,370 dials, about 334 live conversations: an estimated $1,317 at published rates.