California · U.S. House · District 27 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Jason Gibbs.

Whitesides starts 7.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,380 net votes toward Gibbs, a 0.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 7.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Gibbs the one standing if one comes.

14,869

net votes between Gibbs and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

7.8 pts

Whitesides lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.1-point national wave.

Odds today13%

Odds with the plan16%

Net votes to find14,869

WhereSanta Clarita, Los Angeles, Lancaster

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Whitesides +7.8. Jason Gibbs needs 14,869 net votes. Odds 13% today, 16% with the plan.

The number

95,263 votes.

That is half of the 190,525 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Gibbs stands today, and what is missing:

86,669 Jason Gibbs baseline

101,538 George Whitesides baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

13% today. 16% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Gibbs wins in

16%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

13%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Gibbs short by 13,408.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,009

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,009

Who. 1,009 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Whitesides today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Gibbs needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Whitesides.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Gibbs's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

371

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,060

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gibbs's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,380 net votes against a gap of 14,869. Still 13,489 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 7.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Santa Claritapersuade
Starting line Gibbs +1. 1.8% split their ticket.
+830
02
Los Angelespersuade
Starting line Whitesides +25.
+156
03
Lancasterpersuade
Starting line Whitesides +8. 0.6% split their ticket.
+141
04
Unincorporated Los Angeles Countypersuade
Starting line Gibbs +4. 1.2% split their ticket.
+131
05
Palmdalepersuade
Starting line Whitesides +13.
+121

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Santa Clarita carries the most.

Santa Clarita gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 830. It sits at Gibbs +1 on our starting line, and 1.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Whitesides had $2.55 million in cash on hand to Gibbs's $202K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,380 net votes. The gap is 14,869. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 0.7 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Gibbs's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 283
Slope: 1.059
R²: 0.975
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 94

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Gibbs's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Gibbs, with Whitesides, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,009 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Gibbs is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 9.8 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 8.1 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 6.1 points.

Gibbs wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Whitesides.
The national environment moves about 7.1 points toward Gibbs's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

334 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 6,370 dials to 2,123 households, before the last ballot is cast.

2,123

households on the target list

6,370

dials across three attempts

334

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,317 at our published rates: 2,123 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jason Gibbs (R)

Santa Clarita city councilmember since 2020 and former mayor (2023) who worked as a mechanical engineer on Delta and Atlas V launch systems. Holds bachelor's and master's degrees in mechanical engineering from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.

Cash on hand $201,877 and $379,440 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

George Whitesides (D)

U.S. Representative since 2025 who previously served as NASA chief of staff and as CEO of Virgin Galactic. Holds a BA from Princeton and an MPhil from King's College, Cambridge.

Cash on hand $2,554,917 and $3,963,530 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Whitesides +7.8. Jason Gibbs needs 14,869 net votes. Odds 13% today, 16% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jason Gibbs win California's 27th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,380 net votes; the gap is 14,869. The rest would take a 7.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Jason Gibbs needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Santa Clarita, Los Angeles, Lancaster, Unincorporated Los Angeles County, Palmdale. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jason Gibbs need to persuade?

About 504 voters who lean George Whitesides today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,009 persuadable voters leaning George Whitesides.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.